Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low is forecast to be the in southwest Ontario vicinity early D4/Thursday morning, with a cold front extending from it southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this front is expected to progress steadily eastward throughout the day across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Eastward/southeastward progression of the southern portion of the front (i.e. from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains) will be slowed by secondary cyclogenesis attendant to the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough. The southern-stream shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern Plains on D5/Friday, with its attendant surface low tracking across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front across central TX on D4/Thursday and from south TX into the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Buoyancy will be limited, and the stronger shear will lag behind the front and surface low, keeping the severe chances low. Some low-level moisture will likely remain in place across the central Gulf coast and FL this weekend, with some showers and thunderstorms possible. The remainder of the CONUS is expected to be under the influence of a dry and stable air mass from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broad upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies southwestward into southern CA early Wednesday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger troughing, and one of these wave is expected to progress northeastward from the central Rockies across the central Plains and Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes. A surface low attendant to this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. Modest low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints, will precede the cold front from mid MS and Lower OH Valley into TX. However, the colder mid-level temperatures will lag behind this surface front, with warm mid-level temperatures and resultant convective inhibition expected to preclude thunderstorm development throughout much of the period. The only exception is within the warm-air advection zone preceding the low from northwest IL/northern IN into Lower MI Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures (and resultant steepening of the lapse rates) may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Given the cool profiles, some small hail is possible within the strongest updrafts, but meager buoyancy should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a strong mid-level jet will continue to drift south with strong mid-level flow overspreading a dry and well-mixed airmass across the Southwest. This strong flow, combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will support breezy conditions across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Fine fuels in this region are becoming dormant after recent cold weather and therefore are increasingly likely to burn. Winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent will support some large fire threat, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ..Bentley.. 11/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more