Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will continue to move south and east across the Southwest and southern Rockies today and overspread a dry surface airmass with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent. These stronger mid-level winds are expected to mix to the surface across the Southwest from northern Arizona into northern New Mexico and far southern Utah and Colorado. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a developing surface low in the Plains will result in additional acceleration of wind speeds across eastern New Mexico. In this region, fuels are mostly grasses which have recently cured due to cooler temperatures at the end of October. Therefore, since there has not been any precipitation in over a week, fuels should support the potential for large wildfire spread. Dry conditions will continue across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. These dry conditions may support some increase in initial attack and continued drying of fuels which may help support the spread of ongoing fires in the region. However, winds are expected to remain very light, and therefore, no Elevated or Critical fire weather areas are warranted. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS on Tuesday. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a vertically stacked cyclone by evening near the southern SK/MB border, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Four Corners region. A cold front initially over parts of the OH and mid-MS Valleys is expected to become nearly stationary. The boundary should begin to advance northward as a warm front Tuesday evening, as a surface cyclone moves eastward across the south-central Great Plains. While low 60s F dewpoints will move northward into parts of MO/southern IL, very weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent should preclude storm development across the warm sector. Weak nocturnal convection near the OR/northern CA coast may linger into the morning, but with decreasing coverage/intensity as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. Elsewhere, weak convection will be possible from northeast NV into northern UT/southern ID, and also across parts of the northern Plains in association with the embedded shortwave trough. Weak elevated convection will be possible late in the period across parts of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes within a low-level warm-advection regime. While nonzero lightning potential could evolve across any of the areas described above, confidence in sufficient coverage is too low for introduction of any 10%/general thunderstorm areas at this time. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of tonight. ...Pacific Northwest into northern California... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing across parts of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. Weak buoyancy (as noted on the 00 UTC MFR and SLE soundings) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across interior regions of the Northwest and northern CA through the evening, as a mid/upper-level trough continues to move inland over the region. Cold temperatures aloft will continue to support an isolated thunderstorm threat near coastal areas into the overnight hours. ...Lower Great Lakes... Lightning activity has mostly subsided across the lower Great Lakes region this evening, as an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough over eastern Ontario becomes increasingly displaced from an axis of weak buoyancy extending from northern OH into western NY. Weak convection may persist into the overnight hours across parts of PA/NY, but any lingering lightning potential appears too limited to support a 10%/general thunderstorm delineation. ..Dean.. 11/07/2023 Read more