Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally, the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH Valley and off the Northeast coast. Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave, a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles (i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of producing lightning. Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into south Texas. A few flashes of lightning may also be noted along the Washington Coast. ...Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Low-latitude short-wave trough will eject across northern Mexico into west TX Thursday afternoon and then weaken as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This downstream weakening is partly due to high-level confluence that will also encourage surface pressure rises across the southern High Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface front will advance into northern LA, arcing southwest into deep south TX by early evening. Scattered elevated convection will develop along the cool side of the boundary in response to the short wave, but weak low-level convergence should limit warm-sector coverage/intensity. Seasonally high-PW air mass will extend across south TX into the lower MS Valley. That will ultimately lead to weak buoyancy within a marginal-lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the warm sector exhibit strong bulk shear through 6km, but weak low-level flow/shear. While a few storms may display weak rotation across deep south TX, thermodynamic environment appears too negligible, given the weak low-level convergence, for any meaningful risk of severe. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong short-wave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest Coast by 10/00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures will help steepen lapse rates near/immediately behind the surface front as it moves inland by early evening. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with weak convection associated with this feature. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel height falls are spreading across the Great Lakes ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough approaching the upper MS Valley. In response to this feature, a surface low, currently located over northwest IN, will track into southern ON by 06z before approaching western NY by sunrise. LLJ will also continue to increase ahead of the low, and this, combined with high-level diffluent flow aloft, should maintain a corridor of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent/elevated convection. 00z sounding from DTX exhibited MUCAPE around 400 J/kg if lifting a parcel near 850mb. While lapse rates are seasonally steep across this region, primary risk with this activity should be no more than small hail. ..Darrow.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel height falls are spreading across the Great Lakes ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough approaching the upper MS Valley. In response to this feature, a surface low, currently located over northwest IN, will track into southern ON by 06z before approaching western NY by sunrise. LLJ will also continue to increase ahead of the low, and this, combined with high-level diffluent flow aloft, should maintain a corridor of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent/elevated convection. 00z sounding from DTX exhibited MUCAPE around 400 J/kg if lifting a parcel near 850mb. While lapse rates are seasonally steep across this region, primary risk with this activity should be no more than small hail. ..Darrow.. 11/09/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel height falls are spreading across the Great Lakes ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough approaching the upper MS Valley. In response to this feature, a surface low, currently located over northwest IN, will track into southern ON by 06z before approaching western NY by sunrise. LLJ will also continue to increase ahead of the low, and this, combined with high-level diffluent flow aloft, should maintain a corridor of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent/elevated convection. 00z sounding from DTX exhibited MUCAPE around 400 J/kg if lifting a parcel near 850mb. While lapse rates are seasonally steep across this region, primary risk with this activity should be no more than small hail. ..Darrow.. 11/09/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 8 22:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 8 22:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - Southern California... A continuation of offshore flow across southern CA will favor dry boundary-layer conditions across the region into Days 4-5 /Saturday-Sunday. At the same time, a building upper-level ridge over the West will lead to a strengthening surface high and a modest enhancement to the offshore pressure gradient. As a result, dry/breezy conditions are possible over the wind-prone areas of southern CA on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday. However, medium-range model guidance depicts offshore pressure gradient magnitudes typically associated with elevated vs critical conditions -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday - High Plains... A series of midlevel troughs and enhanced westerly flow will cross the Rockies, promoting lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across portions of the High Plains. This may lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though the potential for Critical conditions currently appears low. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the surface. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes to the thunder line were required at 20Z. Elevated instability will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through tonight as storms move from WI/Lake MI eastward toward Lake Erie/Ontario tonight. Instability is unlikely to support severe hail, though strong effective shear and minimal boundary-layer melting could potentially result in very small hail reaching the surface. ..Jewell/Hart.. 11/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023/ A strong mid-level jet max is tracking east-northeastward across the central Plains. An associated deepening surface low will move across IL and into the Great Lakes region. Low-level warm advection to the northeast of the surface low will lead to scattered precipitation and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Organized severe storms are not expected in this region. Other isolated showers are expected this evening over parts of TX as a weak subtropical system begins to interact with a quasi-stationary boundary. A few lightning flashes are possible, but the overall risk appears to be less than 10%. Read more