Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 3-4/Tue-Wed - Southern High Plains and Southwest... Preceding a large-scale trough over the West, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Day 3/Tue. This will promote the development of a lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending southward across the southern Plains. Downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating west of the dryline will favor 10-15 percent RH across the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). The best overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH will extend from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, generally along the I-40 corridor. Given marginally receptive fuels here, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will also develop over the Southwest, though fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. On Day 4/Wed, dry/breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains ahead of an approaching cold front, though these conditions appear too brief for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Day 4/Wed - Southern California... An upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the Northwest, favoring the development of surface high pressure over the Great Basin. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across parts of southern CA on Day 4/Wed. Offshore/continental trajectories will support 15-25 percent RH amid breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds. While elevated fire-weather conditions are likely (especially for parts of Ventura and northwest LA Counties), confidence in the development of any more than locally/briefly critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, dry/breezy conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and gap-flow areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO. Strengthening westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating west of a lee trough/dryline will yield 10-15 percent RH this afternoon. These dry conditions, coupled with 15-20 mph sustained surface winds (locally higher), could lead to localized fire-weather concerns. However, marginally receptive fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. Farther east, northerly surface winds and related continental trajectories down the FL peninsula will aid in dry boundary-layer conditions (25-30 percent RH) across northern/central FL this afternoon. While sustained surface winds around 10 mph should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk, locally elevated conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level jet will extend from the eastern Pacific into the central Rockies today. A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to cross the Rockies today which will assist in cyclogenesis across the Plains. The majority of strong winds will be where fuels remain moist and relative humidity remains high. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across southeast Wyoming, beneath the stronger mid-level jet, but fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. An extended dry spell across the Southeast and into the Carolinas continues to cure fuels in the region. Fuels are starting to reach critically dry levels in spots, but winds should remain light for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but winds should remain too light for a greater threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more