Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough currently over the southern Plains is forecast to shift northeastward through the period, crossing the Ozarks and lower Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys today, and then the Midwest tonight. Meanwhile, a second trough will dig southeastward across the West, reinforcing the broader cyclonic flow field centered over central portions of the country through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, from the lower Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley through the first half of the period, and then into the Midwest/Ohio Valley area overnight. This frontal zone will remain a focus for the primary area of thunderstorms through the period. ...Central Gulf Coast States and vicinity... An organized band of thunderstorms continues moving across Louisiana and the adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Ahead of the band, modest -- and slightly elevated -- instability is indicated, with dewpoints generally in the low 60s reflective of a still-stable boundary layer. With that said, higher dewpoints -- mid 60s to around 70 -- are indicated across coastal southeastern Louisiana, eastward to the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. With low 70s values over the northern Gulf, additional northward advection of higher theta-e air is expected today, resulting in some northward expansion of near-surface-based CAPE across eastern Mississippi and Alabama. Despite improving low-level moisture, lapse rates aloft remain weak, and with the short-wave trough lifting northeastward with time and thus only providing a somewhat glancing influence, severe threat appears likely to remain tempered to a large degree. Still, a few stronger storms -- especially into this afternoon when instability should be relatively maximized -- may pose local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Overall however, it still appears that the threat will remain below SLGT risk thresholds, and thus will maintain MRGL risk, extending from the Gulf Coast to southern portions of the Tennessee Valley. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/25/2024 Read more

MD 0090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251048Z - 251245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and/or isolated instances of small hail are possible across central and southwest LA over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a convective line extending from the central LA/TX border vicinity southward along the Sabine River into far southeast TX/TX Golden Triangle. This line has shown an increase in intensity over the past hour or so, likely resulting from increasing large-scale ascent attendant negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the central portions of the southern Plains. Prevailing low-level stability and elevated character of this line has limited the severe potential thus far, although a gust of 40 kt was reported at GLS. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s within the airmass preceding the line over central and southwest LA. This limited low-level moisture is expected to result in a prevalence of the low-stability, keeping the overall severe potential low. Best chance of a damaging gust will be across southwest/south-central LA where the best low-level moisture is located. Linear storm mode suggests the hail potential is low as well, but the combination of modest elevated buoyancy with strong shear could result in isolated instances of small hail. ..Mosier/Goss.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31269357 31599323 31749234 31329186 30349175 29729208 29509250 29659324 29689392 31269357 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more