Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The broad upper trough over the eastern US is forecast to move offshore as moderate to strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreads the northeastern US. At the same time, broad toughing to the west will shift eastward into the Four Corners and southern Plains deepening a lee low east of the Rockies. To the east, high pressure over the MS and OH Valleys will force gusty northerly winds over parts of the Appalachians as a cold front moves into the Southeast. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of VA and NC Saturday, but broader fire-weather concerns should remain limited. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure is forecast to develop over the lower OH Valley. The increase in the surface pressure gradient will help bolster northwesterly surface winds across parts of western VA and NC Saturday afternoon. While slightly cooler given the post-frontal air mass, downslope drying with RH values below 30% and occasional gusts to 15 mph may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions given, unseasonably dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low Friday as a broad upper trough over the eastern US shifts eastward. A second, larger trough over the West Coast will move into the Four Corners bringing increasing rain chances for the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the eastern trough is also forecast to bring the potential for rain to the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. With only modest surface winds, little overlap of dry and breezy surface conditions are expected over the CONUS. This should keep fire-weather concerns low through the period. ..Lyons.. 11/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to move east-northeastward toward the Four Corners region and eventually across parts of the central/southern High Plains by Sunday morning. In its wake, a vigorous upstream trough is forecast to dig southeastward from the northeast Pacific into parts of the Northwest and northern California. Convection associated with the lead upper trough may be capable of producing sporadic lightning strikes across parts of AZ/NM as it moves eastward during the day. Cyclogenesis is expected across the south-central High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening as this system moves eastward, and isolated elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday night from the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS/OK. Meanwhile, convection may be accompanied by sporadic lightning flashes early in the day across parts of the central/southern CA. As the upstream trough digs into the Northwest Saturday evening, another round of weak convection with some isolated lightning potential will be possible from near the Pacific Northwest coast into northern CA. Instability is expected to be too weak to support an organized severe threat across any of the potential thunderstorm areas. ..Dean.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow aloft across much of the MS Valley and toward the Gulf of Mexico. To the west, an upper trough with midlevel 70 kt speed max will affect much of CA into AZ, providing lift and cooling aloft. At the surface, low pressure will deepen off the East Coast as high pressure spreads south across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico. As such, little moisture or instability will be available for thunderstorms. However, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible in association with the upper trough across the OH Valley, and perhaps along the immediate eastern seaboard where weak elevated CAPE may develop. To the west, scattered showers and thunderstorms appear most likely over parts of coastal CA, beneath the cooling aloft. MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg is forecast to develop mainly over the ocean, but pockets of heating inland may yield surface-based and low-topped cells. Small, non-severe hail cannot be ruled out given expected cellular storm mode. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Showers over part of FL have produced little lightning over the last several hours, with relatively poor lapse rates with moist profiles. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as activity with access to unstable air concentrates over the east-central Peninsula. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may persist over far southern AZ as the midlevel moist plume results in elevated instability beneath cool air aloft. This activity may tend to wane this evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Showers over part of FL have produced little lightning over the last several hours, with relatively poor lapse rates with moist profiles. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as activity with access to unstable air concentrates over the east-central Peninsula. To the west, isolated thunderstorms may persist over far southern AZ as the midlevel moist plume results in elevated instability beneath cool air aloft. This activity may tend to wane this evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2023 Read more