Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough shifts into the Southeast, a surface cold front will continue through the southern Plains and into the Gulf of Mexico. Cool/moist conditions over currently unreceptive fuels should continue to preclude fire weather concerns on Saturday. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will strengthen as it ejects into the southern Plains today. Ahead of a surface cold front, westerly winds within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will increase. Marginal RH reductions to around 20% in some areas is possible. Fire weather concerns should still remain minimal given generally unfavorable fuels. ..Wendt.. 01/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast, most notably across coastal Louisiana and Mississippi, and also over parts of eastern Texas. Severe weather chances appear low at this time. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough will move into the southern Plains today, with an intense cyclonically curved midlevel speed max moving across TX, reaching the Sabine Valley/ArkLaTex by 12Z Saturday. Meanwhile, a relatively cool and stable surface air mass will remain over land, with a coastal boundary along the TX and northern Gulf Coast. Weak low pressure is expected to form overnight, moving from the western Gulf toward LA/MS. Widespread convection will exist over the water, with the cool surface air mass mitigating severe potential despite increasing shear. ...Eastern TX...Coastal LA and MS... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, shifting east toward the coastal FL Panhandle by evening. Generally weak southerly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection northward toward the coastal boundary, with clusters of storms over the Gulf of Mexico likely intercepting much of the return flow. As such, mainly elevated storms are forecast over land along the central Gulf Coast during the day. To the west, elevated instability will develop over much of eastern TX and LA ahead of the upper trough, especially late in the day as 850 mb flow reaches 30 kt. A cold front will eventually intercept this elevated instability, with a rash of convection developing after 00Z across east TX, LA, and to the MS River. These storms may increase in intensity during the evening as height falls persist and a cold front pushes through. Forecast soundings depict midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 C/km, only modestly steep for the area, with increasing winds with height and 30-40 kt deep-layer effective shear. This could potentially support small hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through Friday morning, but a few storms may linger this evening over parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms persist this evening from northeast GA into the FL Panhandle, with more substantial storms well offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Little is left to support additional development over land given the loss of heating and movement of a wave northeastward across the OH Valley, and as such, low-end severe probabilities have been removed. A gradual expansion northward of the northern-Gulf activity may occur into Friday morning, as low-level warm advection increases in advance of an upper trough moving toward the southern Plains. Elevated instability in this region may reach 1000 J/kg, supporting a few robust storms over far southern LA, well north of the surface warm front. ..Jewell.. 01/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through Friday morning, but a few storms may linger this evening over parts of the Southeast. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms persist this evening from northeast GA into the FL Panhandle, with more substantial storms well offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Little is left to support additional development over land given the loss of heating and movement of a wave northeastward across the OH Valley, and as such, low-end severe probabilities have been removed. A gradual expansion northward of the northern-Gulf activity may occur into Friday morning, as low-level warm advection increases in advance of an upper trough moving toward the southern Plains. Elevated instability in this region may reach 1000 J/kg, supporting a few robust storms over far southern LA, well north of the surface warm front. ..Jewell.. 01/26/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 25 23:50:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 25 23:50:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southwest Georgia and the extreme northern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11... Valid 251934Z - 252130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for occasional damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado will remain possible over eastern parts of WW11 and downstream this afternoon. No downstream watch is anticipated. DISCUSSION...As of 1925 UTC, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of thunderstorms ongoing across west/southwest AL. More isolated convection was also periodically noted ahead of the line within the warm sector farther north. Over the last couple of hours, occasional damaging gusts have been observed with stronger segments of the line across southern MS and southwest AL within WW11. 1000 J/kg of MCLAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear will remain favorable for organized segments of the line as it moves toward the eastern edge of the watch this afternoon. While organizational trends of the line have been down recently owing to weakening large-scale ascent, the broadly favorable environment ahead will remain supportive of an occasional damaging gust with any stronger storms as they move to the east. A brief tornado is also possible given 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 from SPC mesoanalysis. Given the recent trends with the line and weakening forcing, a downstream watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32658736 32988658 33248558 33188503 32908460 32528440 31938458 31548486 31158560 31028606 30898693 30898726 30908749 30938772 31008786 31478778 32658736 Read more