SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley today. Enhancement of westerly downslope flow across far western Texas is expected, though relative humidity should remain above 25-30 percent amid moist fuels. In addition, recent rainfall on Wednesday and moist fuels suggest fire spread potential will be low. Given cool and moist conditions across much of the rest of the US, fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC Jan 25, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley today, especially across parts of southern/eastern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana into Alabama. ...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley... A linearly organized band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning across south-central/southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, with some showers/thunderstorms also ongoing across the preceding warm sector across Alabama and eastern Mississippi. Cloud cover remains semi-prevalent in the warm sector, and this may tend to somewhat hinder parcel accelerations including the vigor of line-preceding storms, although additional low-level moistening will continue to occur during the day and be somewhat of an offsetting thermodynamic factor. Overall severe-conducive scenario is kinematically/dynamically supported by the steady northeastward ejection of a shortwave trough over the Ozarks toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through tonight, with a similar northeastward transition of strong 850 mb/700 mb winds (50+ kt in both cases) across Mississippi/Alabama toward eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. This will allow for the continuation of well-organized storms as additional heating destabilization occurs and some additional updraft intensification potentially materializes. Isolated damaging winds are expected today, particularly across southeast/east-central Mississippi into western Alabama, with tornadoes a possibility as well given the degree of shear/SRH within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. At least some severe risk, likely on a more isolated/marginal basis, could move into additional parts of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by late afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/25/2024 Read more
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