Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential is expected to be limited for Thursday across the country. Latest guidance continues to depict the passage of a cold front across the Plains through the day. Post-frontal winds are forecast to gust to 25-35 mph, but cooling temperatures behind the front should limit RH reductions and the potential for prolonged fire weather conditions. Westerly downslope flow ahead of the front along the Front Range may support localized elevated fire weather conditions with winds gusting to 20 mph and RH falling into the low 20s. Such conditions appear most likely from central CO to northern NM, but are expected to remain fairly localized and transient. Dry conditions will persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic with RH minimums in the 20-30% range, but weak winds will mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears to be limited for today across the country. Early-morning surface observations show very dry conditions along the central High Plains of CO and WY, where dewpoints are in the teens to low 20s after subsequent days of downslope warming/drying. Dry conditions are also noted across the southern Appalachians, where RH values have been in the 20-30% range over the past two days. The maintenance of a stout surface high over the East Coast will continue to favor relatively light winds over the southern Appalachians for today. To the west, increasing southwesterly flow over the inter-mountain West will support areas of breezy downslope winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southeast WY to northeast CO, where the potential for 15 mph overlapping with 15-20% RH seems highest. Stronger winds are expected to the west within the higher terrain, but increasing cloud cover (already noted upstream in IR imagery) should limit diurnal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough moves slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be likely Thursday into Thursday night from near the trough in the Gulf eastward across the Florida Peninsula, and northward into southern Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the coast of central California, downstream from an eastern Pacific upper-level system. Instability across the Southeast and along the central California coast is expected to be weak and insufficient for a severe threat Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough moves slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be likely Thursday into Thursday night from near the trough in the Gulf eastward across the Florida Peninsula, and northward into southern Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the coast of central California, downstream from an eastern Pacific upper-level system. Instability across the Southeast and along the central California coast is expected to be weak and insufficient for a severe threat Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough moves slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be likely Thursday into Thursday night from near the trough in the Gulf eastward across the Florida Peninsula, and northward into southern Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the coast of central California, downstream from an eastern Pacific upper-level system. Instability across the Southeast and along the central California coast is expected to be weak and insufficient for a severe threat Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough moves slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be likely Thursday into Thursday night from near the trough in the Gulf eastward across the Florida Peninsula, and northward into southern Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the coast of central California, downstream from an eastern Pacific upper-level system. Instability across the Southeast and along the central California coast is expected to be weak and insufficient for a severe threat Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday, as another trough moves slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be likely Thursday into Thursday night from near the trough in the Gulf eastward across the Florida Peninsula, and northward into southern Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the coast of central California, downstream from an eastern Pacific upper-level system. Instability across the Southeast and along the central California coast is expected to be weak and insufficient for a severe threat Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/trough over the eastern Pacific offshore from the CA coast will persist through the period. However, moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will result in moistening midlevels amid modestly cooling temperatures aloft. This will support weak elevated instability, and a few lightning flashes will be possible from southern CA toward the lower CO River Valley. Further east, an upper trough will drift east over Gulf of Mexico, while a surface low persists offshore from the central Gulf Coast. Deeper boundary-layer moisture and better instability will remain offshore, but a few lightning flashes may occur along the central Gulf Coast and into parts of the southern/central FL peninsula. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Moore.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across southern Florida. ...Synopsis... Isolated lightning flashes are possible near and offshore from the central Gulf Coast, as well as across south FL this evening into tonight. This activity may increase over the next several hours as a surface low and upper trough develop eastward into Wednesday morning, fostering continued warm advection and some forcing for ascent. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/15/2023 Read more