Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper high will be situated over the Bahamas as a potent shortwave trough moves from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley toward the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys through 00Z. Height falls will be more prominent across AR, MS, northern AL and into TN as the ridge holds to the southeast. At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop roughly from LA into western KY, with little eastward progression of the cold front. Southerly winds over 35 kt at 850 will aid moisture transport off the Gulf of Mexico, with a mean warm from southeast LA into southern AL during the day. Upper 60s dewpoints are forecast south of this diffuse boundary, with mid 60s F eventually spreading into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern LA/MS into AL, FL Panhandle, northwest Georgia... Widespread thunderstorms and rain are expected from the Sabine Valley into MS, Middle TN and southern KY this morning, with over 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE from LA into central AL. Uncapped, SBCAPE will be present along parts of the LA coast, and gradual inland destabilization is expected. By midday, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is to extend across much of southern MS and central/southern AL. The greatest risk of a few severe storms producing damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to be during the late morning to early afternoon period, prior to the negating large-scale effects of the trough moving away from the region. These negative effects will include a reduction in lift, veering low-level winds which will reduce SRH for supercells and tornadoes, and backing flow in the upper levels. All this suggests perhaps a few transient supercells especially early in the day and near the initial low-level moisture surge. Overall predictability is also low given the likelihood of widespread storms moving east across the lower MS Valley, but mesoscale factors could yield a brief tornado or damaging gust. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 01/25/2024 Read more