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1 year 5 months ago
MD 0284 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 58... FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...South Florida and the Florida Keys
Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...
Valid 230213Z - 230415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the Florida Keys, and
is expected to develop and increase over the southern Florida
Peninsula over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Key West shows a
cluster of strong to severe storms over the waters to the north of
and just south of Key West. Well-organized and strongly rotating
supercells appear to be ongoing within this cluster. The cluster
will move eastward across the Florida Keys vicinity over the next
couple of hours. Additional storms are expected to develop across
the southern Florida Peninsula. According to the RAP, MLCAPE in the
Florida Keys is generally near or above 1000 J/kg, with somewhat
weaker instability in south Florida. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West
still has an impressive shear environment, with 0-6 km shear at 60
knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2. This should
continue support a tornado threat with supercells, and a strong
tornado will be possible with the any supercell that becomes
intense. A wind-damage and isolated large hail will also likely
accompany the stronger storms. If a line segment can become
organized, then the wind-damage threat will likely increase as well.
..Broyles.. 03/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 24898228 24448240 24318183 24678078 25038026 25388021
25648040 25738076 25748134 25628177 25368204 24898228
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 WSW EYW
TO 20 NNW EYW TO 30 NNW MTH TO 20 NE APF.
..BROYLES..03/23/24
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-021-086-087-230440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE
MONROE
AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-072-073-074-
075-657-230440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WNW EYW
TO 30 N EYW TO 45 NW MTH TO 15 S APF.
..BROYLES..03/23/24
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-021-086-087-230340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE
MONROE
AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055-
072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...Florida Keys...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222329Z - 230200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado, wind and hail threat may develop over the next
couple of hours over the Florida Keys and south Florida. Weather
watch issuance may become necessary this evening.
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a
shortwave trough over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico with a distinct
vorticity max approaching south Florida. Strong large-scale ascent
associated with the vorticity max is aiding the development of a
squall line about 90 statute miles to the west of Key West. Ahead of
this line, surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F across the
Florida Keys. Temperatures in the upper 70s F are yielding MLCAPE in
the 600 to 800 J/kg range according to the RAP. The WSR-88D VWP at
Key West is impressive with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2, and a clockwise curved
hodograph. This will likely support a severe threat, as a
squall-line approaches and then moves across the Florida Keys this
evening. A tornado threat will be possible with the stronger cells
embedded in the line, and with supercells if discrete cells can
develop ahead of the line. A wind-damage and isolated large hail
threat is also expected to accompany the squall-line as it moves
across the Florida Keys, most likely during the 02Z and 05Z
timeframe.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25888002 25938032 25878053 25688099 25498171 25338241
25078276 24788290 24458283 24208256 24148191 24388096
24768019 25287985 25717983 25888002
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/23/24
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-021-086-087-230240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE
MONROE
AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055-
072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/23/24
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC011-021-086-087-230140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD COLLIER MIAMI-DADE
MONROE
AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-032-033-034-035-042-043-044-052-053-054-055-
072-073-074-075-656-657-676-230140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
BISCAYNE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND BLACKWATER SOUND AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are
expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the
southern mainland of Florida.
...South FL, including the FL Keys...
Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the
central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This
feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the
period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead
of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line
extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40
miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have
evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample
shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts
capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall
line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south
Florida by late this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/23/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...Florida Keys...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222329Z - 230200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado, wind and hail threat may develop over the next
couple of hours over the Florida Keys and south Florida. Weather
watch issuance may become necessary this evening.
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a
shortwave trough over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico with a distinct
vorticity max approaching south Florida. Strong large-scale ascent
associated with the vorticity max is aiding the development of a
squall line about 90 statute miles to the west of Key West. Ahead of
this line, surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F across the
Florida Keys. Temperatures in the upper 70s F are yielding MLCAPE in
the 600 to 800 J/kg range according to the RAP. The WSR-88D VWP at
Key West is impressive with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2, and a clockwise curved
hodograph. This will likely support a severe threat, as a
squall-line approaches and then moves across the Florida Keys this
evening. A tornado threat will be possible with the stronger cells
embedded in the line, and with supercells if discrete cells can
develop ahead of the line. A wind-damage and isolated large hail
threat is also expected to accompany the squall-line as it moves
across the Florida Keys, most likely during the 02Z and 05Z
timeframe.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25888002 25938032 25878053 25688099 25498171 25338241
25078276 24788290 24458283 24208256 24148191 24388096
24768019 25287985 25717983 25888002
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 22 23:32:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 5 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 22 22:08:02 UTC 2024.
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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