Severe Storms

MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...Portions of Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...far northeast New Mexico. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 232228Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for WW 613. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from two storm clusters in eastern Colorado and portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some possibility for a tornado exists with storms interacting with an outflow boundary in western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows two primary clusters of storms within WW 613. One cluster east of Denver has had a history of relatively discrete storms producing large hail, with one report of 1.75 inches. Storms in the southern portions of the Watch have congealed into more of a linear structure in the Panhandles. Deep boundary layer mixing has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F across most of eastern Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles. Combined with modest low-level shear, the expectation is for these two clusters to continue to grow upscale this evening and propagate east/southeastward. Visible satellite imagery has shown agitated cumulus increasing along an outflow boundary from near Dodge City, KS into northeastern Colorado. Near this boundary, both deep-layer (around 40 kts effective) shear and low-level shear will be maximized. The KDDC VWP shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Storms that can form along/interact with this boundary will have some potential to produce a tornado before likely moving into more stable air across the boundary. ..Wendt.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35930323 38620402 39890458 40580427 40900324 40260186 38900143 37840095 36420094 36010143 35840240 35820296 35930323 Read more

MD 1843 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 232332Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe gusts (60-70mph) is increasing as storms grow upscale into a squall line near the WY/NE border and move east into the NE Panhandle this evening. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of storms over far southeastern WY. RAP forecast soundings show 700-500mb lapse rates approaching 9 degrees C/km atop a moisture-rich boundary layer with low-middle 60s surface dewpoints in the NE Panhandle. Despite the relatively weak flow in the troposphere, strong veering of the wind profile is at least resulting in deep-layer shear supportive for multicell organization in the form of a squall line. The primary hazard will be severe gusts in the 60-70mph range. ..Smith.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42490435 42790342 41130327 40930427 42490435 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W ECG TO 15 S RZZ TO 15 ENE RDU TO 35 SW GSO TO 35 NW GSO TO 35 ENE DAN TO 35 ESE ORF. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-029-033-053-063-067-069-073-077-081-083-091-127-131-135- 139-145-157-169-181-183-185-240000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CAMDEN CASWELL CURRITUCK DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC083-550-710-740-800-810-240000- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HALIFAX Read more

WW 612 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 231920Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeastern Maryland Northern North Carolina South central and southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity the next few hours along and south of a cold front that will move across Virginia into North Carolina by late this evening. Multicell clusters and line segments will be the primary storm modes, with an attendant threat for damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Greensboro NC to 35 miles east northeast of Norfolk VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-232340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-232340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-043-045- 232340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK FREMONT GOSHEN Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The western Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwestern South Dakota Much of central and eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming across central Wyoming and immediately east of the higher terrain into eastern Wyoming. The storm environment is sufficient for supercells across central Wyoming, though growth into clusters with damaging winds and large hail should be the primary concern through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY to 95 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612...WW 613... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842 ..WENDT..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-123-125-232340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-189-199-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS WALLACE Read more

WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM OK TX 232035Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Extreme western Kansas Extreme southwestern Nebraska Extreme northeastern New Mexico The western Oklahoma Panhandle The northwestern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming in several clusters along the Front Range from northeastern New Mexico northward into Colorado. The storm environment is most favorable for multicell clusters and some upscale growth into larger clusters/line segments with an attendant threat for damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may occur later this evening as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary near the Kansas/Colorado border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 25 miles south southeast of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 612... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...Portions of Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...far northeast New Mexico. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613... Valid 232228Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for WW 613. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from two storm clusters in eastern Colorado and portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some possibility for a tornado exists with storms interacting with an outflow boundary in western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows two primary clusters of storms within WW 613. One cluster east of Denver has had a history of relatively discrete storms producing large hail, with one report of 1.75 inches. Storms in the southern portions of the Watch have congealed into more of a linear structure in the Panhandles. Deep boundary layer mixing has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F across most of eastern Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles. Combined with modest low-level shear, the expectation is for these two clusters to continue to grow upscale this evening and propagate east/southeastward. Visible satellite imagery has shown agitated cumulus increasing along an outflow boundary from near Dodge City, KS into northeastern Colorado. Near this boundary, both deep-layer (around 40 kts effective) shear and low-level shear will be maximized. The KDDC VWP shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Storms that can form along/interact with this boundary will have some potential to produce a tornado before likely moving into more stable air across the boundary. ..Wendt.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35930323 38620402 39890458 40580427 40900324 40260186 38900143 37840095 36420094 36010143 35840240 35820296 35930323 Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GSO TO 35 SE LYH TO 15 NE AVC TO 30 SSW WAL. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-015-029-033-041-053-063-065-067-069-073-077-081-083-091- 127-131-135-139-143-145-157-169-181-183-185-195-232240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES VANCE WAKE WARREN WILSON VAC025-053-081-083-089-093-115-117-131-143-175-181-183-199-550- 590-595-620-650-690-700-710-735-740-800-810-232240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX HENRY ISLE OF WIGHT Read more

MD 1841 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...central and eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232200Z - 232230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of multicells will continue to develop into areas yet to be convectively overturned. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely not warranted south of severe thunderstorm watch 612. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows extensive outflow from ongoing multicell clusters over the Carolinas. Surface temperatures are near 90 degrees F in portions of central and eastern NC. Strong gusts may accompany the most intense downdrafts. Given the transient character of the localized threat for strong gusts and inherent predictability limits of multicell development and outflow, will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35418131 35818011 35777678 35377615 34517698 34757941 34938095 35418131 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-123-125-232240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-189-199-232240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS WALLACE Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-232240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-232240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC001-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-031-043-045- 232240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK FREMONT GOSHEN Read more

MD 1839 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...portions of the OK/TX panhandles...and far northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231948Z - 232145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated convection is beginning to develop across the far western portions of the discussion area against higher terrain. These storms should grow upscale over the next couple hours or so, possibly requiring a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery and objective analyses suggest a gradual increase in towering cumulus against higher terrain of central/south-central Colorado and adjacent areas of New Mexico within a weak upslope regime and easterly/southeasterly surface winds. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s in most areas, which has increased surface-based CAPE values into the 2000-3000 J/kg range amidst steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. Observational trends and model guidance suggest that convection will continue to expand with time, and some upscale growth into linear segments is expected given weak low-level shear and maturing cold pools. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary threats with this activity. Convective trends are being monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed around or before 21Z. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37710438 38800475 39610493 40100504 40690483 40990430 40980279 40480220 39360184 39020168 37880142 36610137 35920208 35980322 36340403 36910426 37710438 Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0614 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0613 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0612 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 612 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/23/19 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-047-232140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WORCESTER NCC001-015-029-033-041-053-063-065-067-069-073-077-081-083-091- 127-131-135-139-143-145-157-169-181-183-185-195-232140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BERTIE CAMDEN CASWELL CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES VANCE WAKE WARREN WILSON VAC001-007-011-025-031-036-037-041-049-053-057-063-067-073-075- Read more

MD 1840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Areas affected...Central/eastern Wyoming through the Nebraska Panhandle and southwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232008Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to develop through the remainder of the afternoon, though a more robust severe threat ma develop along eastern portions of the discussion area after around 21-22Z. A WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...The combination of 1) lift associated with an approaching mid-level low over northwestern Wyoming and vicinity, 2) weak upslope due to light northerly surface flow across much of the discussion area, and moderate instability owing to 70s F surface temps and steep mid-level lapse rates is contributing to a gradual expansion in convective coverage across the discussion area. Though low-level shear is generally weak, the combination of modestly strong (40-kt) deep shear will contribute to some organization of storms across central Wyoming over the next 1-2 hours along with an associated threat for hail/wind. The extent of convective coverage is still a bit uncertain in this area, however, as storms remain a bit too sparse in coverage to necessitate a WW issuance in the short term. The greater chance of a WW issuance will exist across the eastern half of the discussion area through the afternoon and early evening. By this time, upstream storms will have had a chance to develop more mature cold pools and grow upscale while encountering better instability via a pool of low to mid-60s F dewpoints across western portions of NE/SD. Convective trends are being monitored in the event that this scenario necessitates a WW issuance over time. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 43340825 44020769 44210566 44020401 43250298 42190257 41180271 41000367 41080546 41220705 41730786 42420841 43340825 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm risk continues this afternoon into early tonight for portions of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as the central High Plains. ...Discussion... Evolution of ongoing convection remains largely in line with the most recent outlook reasoning and areal outlines. Storms are increasing across parts of southern Virginia, within the SLGT risk area, and where newly issued WW #612 is in effect. Farther west, convection remains thus far subdued over the high Plains, but should increase over the next couple of hours. For additional short-term information across this area, please refer to recently issued MCD #1839. ..Goss.. 08/23/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ ...VA/NC this afternoon/evening... A surface cold front will continue to move slowly southward across VA this afternoon into NC overnight, in the wake of a midlevel trough crossing New England. The southern fringe of the westerlies extends south to near the VA/NC border, where a series of subtle speed maxima/embedded MCVs will translate eastward this afternoon. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front and an accompanying differential heating zone should support thunderstorm development by early afternoon across central VA, and storms will spread east-southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will be rather modest, surface heating will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost afternoon MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg. Given effective bulk shear in the 25-35 kt range, and mix of organized multicell clusters and some low-end supercells can be expected in a broken band along the front this afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main severe threat. ...Central High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving slowly eastward over the northern Rockies, as other subtle embedded waves progress eastward over the central Rockies. Steep midlevel lapse rates, daytime heating, and low-level upslope flow will promote an environment favorable for afternoon thunderstorm development east of the Front Range from northeast NM northward into eastern WY. Deep-layer vertical shear will not be particularly strong over most of the High Plains. The corridors of the somewhat stronger vertical shear will be immediately east of the midlevel trough in WY, and in the vicinity of southeast CO where low-level east-southeast flow will reside beneath the more westerly flow aloft, contributing to effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt. Thus, expect a mix of multicell clusters and some low-end supercells capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. A few clusters will likely persist into tonight in association with warm advection and a modest low-level jet. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm risk continues this afternoon into early tonight for portions of North Carolina and Virginia, as well as the central High Plains. ...Discussion... Evolution of ongoing convection remains largely in line with the most recent outlook reasoning and areal outlines. Storms are increasing across parts of southern Virginia, within the SLGT risk area, and where newly issued WW #612 is in effect. Farther west, convection remains thus far subdued over the high Plains, but should increase over the next couple of hours. For additional short-term information across this area, please refer to recently issued MCD #1839. ..Goss.. 08/23/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/ ...VA/NC this afternoon/evening... A surface cold front will continue to move slowly southward across VA this afternoon into NC overnight, in the wake of a midlevel trough crossing New England. The southern fringe of the westerlies extends south to near the VA/NC border, where a series of subtle speed maxima/embedded MCVs will translate eastward this afternoon. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front and an accompanying differential heating zone should support thunderstorm development by early afternoon across central VA, and storms will spread east-southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Though midlevel lapse rates will be rather modest, surface heating will steepen low-level lapse rates and boost afternoon MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg. Given effective bulk shear in the 25-35 kt range, and mix of organized multicell clusters and some low-end supercells can be expected in a broken band along the front this afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main severe threat. ...Central High Plains this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving slowly eastward over the northern Rockies, as other subtle embedded waves progress eastward over the central Rockies. Steep midlevel lapse rates, daytime heating, and low-level upslope flow will promote an environment favorable for afternoon thunderstorm development east of the Front Range from northeast NM northward into eastern WY. Deep-layer vertical shear will not be particularly strong over most of the High Plains. The corridors of the somewhat stronger vertical shear will be immediately east of the midlevel trough in WY, and in the vicinity of southeast CO where low-level east-southeast flow will reside beneath the more westerly flow aloft, contributing to effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt. Thus, expect a mix of multicell clusters and some low-end supercells capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. A few clusters will likely persist into tonight in association with warm advection and a modest low-level jet. Read more