Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The extended period will begin with a continental polar airmass across much of the eastern CONUS with cold temperatures and extensive areas of snowcover. By the middle of next week, a warmer airmass will develop across the southern Plains and Southeast, but this will also bring significant precipitation to much of the region which will mitigate fire weather concerns. A storm system will bring precipitation to southern California and the Southwest which will bring wetting rain to most fuels in the region. In addition, moisture is expected to remain across the region through the remainder of the week. Therefore, given this pattern, minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated due to the lack of dry fuels or a dry low-level airmass across the CONUS during the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 19 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 19 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery midday Friday shows a potent mid- to upper-level low/trough over the eastern Pacific west of the CA coast. This feature is forecast to weaken as it moves northeast into the Pacific Northwest during daylight hours on Saturday while a weaker perturbation moves through the larger-scale trough's base and into southern CA late Saturday night. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will shift into the Great Plains concurrent with a trough's influence abating along the East Coast. In the low levels, cool and/or stable conditions over much of the Lower 48 states will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/19/2024 Read more