Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern, central and east Texas, and along the coast of California from Sunday into Sunday night. No severe threat is forecast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the trough, southwest mid-level flow will become established across the southern Plains on Sunday. In response, a low-level jet is forecast to develop over the southern Plains, with moisture advection occurring across parts of Texas. Increasing low-level moisture and lift associated with the low-level jet will create conditions favorable for thunderstorms, mainly Sunday night across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains extending northward into parts of central and east Texas. Elsewhere on Sunday, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the coast of California, as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast Sunday night. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Sunday or Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more