Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a few thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Discussion... An amplified but progressive large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS, including a prominent upper trough over the Eastern CONUS. A semi-moist environment, albeit with weak lapse rates, may support a few thunderstorms today across or near south Florida prior to a cold front moving through the region. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible particularly into tonight, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. Weak instability and the anticipated weak/elevated nature of this convection is suggestive of a negligible severe risk. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...Synopsis... The upper flow field across the U.S. will be characterized by fast cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the country today and tonight, while ridging prevails over the West. Ridging will be gradually shunted eastward however, as a low-trough over the eastern Pacific approaches -- and eventually reaches -- the West Coast. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, as high pressure gradually expands southward to encompass a large portion of the U.S. east of the Rockies. While cold stable air associated with this high will preclude thunder potential in most areas, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern Florida ahead of the front, today and into this evening. However, weak lapse rates -- and resulting weak CAPE -- will preclude any appreciable severe potential. In the West, a few lightning flashes will be possible later in the period, as convection moves inland ahead of the advancing Pacific trough and an associated surface cold front. However, weak instability and the anticipated/elevated nature of this convection suggests minimal, if any, severe risk. ..Goss.. 01/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain in place across much of the south-central U.S. on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast from the Texas Coastal Plains into southwest Louisiana, where scattered thunderstorms may develop on Monday and Monday night. Although an isolated severe threat will be possible in the moist airmass, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat should be localized. Uncertainty remains considerable concerning where the greatest threat would be. On Tuesday and Wednesday, southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states. An upper-level trough is forecast to approach the southern Plains during the mid-week, as southerly low-level flow helps to maintain a moist airmass along the western Gulf Coast. During the day on both Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability could develop across parts of south-central Texas. A severe threat would be possible in the afternoon and evening within and along the northern edge of the instability from south-central Texas into southern Louisiana. At this time, confidence concerning the magnitude of any severe threat is too low to introduce a 15 percent contour for either of the two days. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, and upper-level trough is projected to move across the southern Plains, as a cold front advances eastward across the western and central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorm development may occur ahead of the front across a moist airmass each afternoon and evening. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain weak across the Gulf Coast states on Thursday and Friday, suggesting any severe threat would be minimal. Read more