Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible late in the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas... The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over the eastern Texas Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward from the low into western and central Oklahoma. This boundary will be a focus for convective development this evening. Although a weak cap is in place across the southern Plains, large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be enough to support new isolated thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings near and south of the boundary in the southeast Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this evening have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg, effective shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This may be sufficient for marginally severe hail this evening. ...Texas Coastal Plain... As an upper-level trough approaches from the west tonight, low-level moisture advection will begin across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the mid 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain by late in the period. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability, mainly from Corpus Christi southward. In response to increasing low-level flow, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to begin around 09Z, with a gradual increase in convective coverage taking place over the last few hours of the period. RAP forecast soundings near Corpus Christi at this time have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 60 knots of deep-layer shear. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger rotating storms. A few strong gusts could also occur. ..Broyles.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible late in the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas... The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over the eastern Texas Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward from the low into western and central Oklahoma. This boundary will be a focus for convective development this evening. Although a weak cap is in place across the southern Plains, large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be enough to support new isolated thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings near and south of the boundary in the southeast Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this evening have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg, effective shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This may be sufficient for marginally severe hail this evening. ...Texas Coastal Plain... As an upper-level trough approaches from the west tonight, low-level moisture advection will begin across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the mid 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain by late in the period. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability, mainly from Corpus Christi southward. In response to increasing low-level flow, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to begin around 09Z, with a gradual increase in convective coverage taking place over the last few hours of the period. RAP forecast soundings near Corpus Christi at this time have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 60 knots of deep-layer shear. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger rotating storms. A few strong gusts could also occur. ..Broyles.. 03/21/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 20 23:57:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 20 23:57:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202151Z - 202345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Strong winds and small hail are possible with the strongest cores, although these hazards are expected to be relatively localized. A watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...A few deeper updrafts are observed to the southwest of CDS in the TX Rolling Plains. They appear to be forced by broad near-surface convergence along a weak moisture gradient, with (relatively) higher dewpoints to the south (currently around 40 F). Mostly sunny conditions throughout the day have yielded well-mixed boundary layers throughout the region, with cloud bases estimated near 3 km AGL. Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -18 C at 500 mb per current RAP forecast profiles) yield some mid-level buoyancy that could support continued updraft development. The vertical wind profile is characterized by steadily strengthening westerly flow with height, yielding roughly 30-40 kts of mid-level shear in the estimated cloud-bearing layer. This could support some instances of small hail with any stronger updraft cores. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers would also support some risk of locally stronger winds associated with dry microbursts. The overall threat is expected to be rather localized and marginal, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Flournoy/Edwards.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 33689995 33190050 32890127 32850190 33430224 34250197 34800140 34980063 34979985 34769949 34199953 33689995 Read more

MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle into Northwestern/North-Central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201959Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instance of hail and/or damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the northeastern Texas Panhandle into northwest/north-central Oklahoma. A landspout or two is also possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over the the northwest TX (over the AMA to BPC vicinity). Leading edge of the cold front, indicated by weak surface troughing, extends east-northeastward from this low into northwest OK and then more eastward into north-central OK. Cumulus has been deepening along this boundary for the past few hours with thunderstorm initiation realized about 30 to 45 mins ago. Despite only modest buoyancy, these storms have steadily deepened, with echo tops now over 30kft. This general trend is expected to persist as convergence persists along the surface trough and the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Overall storm depth and severity will be mitigated by the limited buoyancy, but an isolated updraft or two may briefly by strong enough to produce hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and high storm bases also suggest the potential for damaging gusts as storms collapse. Lastly, given the sharp backing of the wind field near the surface trough, from southerly south of the boundary to northeasterly just north of it, notable surface vorticity is likely present along and just north of the boundary. Consequently, the environment supports the potential for a brief landspout or two. ..Mosier.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35990067 36440009 36639894 36589739 36169732 35699789 35569839 35449879 35289930 35169980 35170037 35490067 35990067 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more