Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more