Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An upper ridge will traverse the central U.S. during the weekend, followed by prolonged mid-level troughing over the Plains states through the week, with multiple embedded impulses pivoting around the mid-level trough. These impulses will support multiple rounds of potentially appreciable precipitation accumulations amid moistening low-level conditions (due to return flow from the Gulf of Mexico). The increased chances of precipitation and moist low-level conditions should limit wildfire-spread potential through the extended forecast period. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this afternoon into tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous forecast. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited to southern Florida, and perhaps the northern Gulf, for today and tonight. Cool continental air remains in place across the majority of the country with any appreciable moisture confined to the southern FL peninsula in the vicinity of diffuse warm frontal zone. Weak ascent associated with modest low-level warm air advection and lift within the right-entrance region of an exiting upper-level jet should support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the early evening. While low-level wind profiles should remain meager, 40-50 knot flow aloft may support transient storm organization, though weak forcing for ascent should preclude a more robust severe thunderstorm threat. To the northwest, broad cyclonic flow aloft over the central Plains/Midwest is expected to amplify over the next 24 hours as a surge of continental air pushes south. Embedded disturbances within the mean cyclonic flow regime will propagate from the central/high Plains towards the Southeast through tonight. Shallow convective showers should develop over the northern Gulf and into coastal LA/MS/AL within a modest warm advection regime ahead of one of these disturbances. A few lightning flashes are possible, but poor mid-level lapse rates and limited ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage below 10%. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the Eastern US and get reinforced by a disturbance moving from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West will slowly shift east to the Rockies as a mid-level low/trough approaches the CA coast. In the low levels, a cold front of arctic origin will quickly push south/southeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the FL Peninsula during the day. A non-zero thunderstorm chance may extend from the shelf waters of the FL Keys into south FL, and in a separate area of coastal CA near San Francisco Bay. Surface high pressure will be pervasive over much of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the Eastern US and get reinforced by a disturbance moving from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West will slowly shift east to the Rockies as a mid-level low/trough approaches the CA coast. In the low levels, a cold front of arctic origin will quickly push south/southeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the FL Peninsula during the day. A non-zero thunderstorm chance may extend from the shelf waters of the FL Keys into south FL, and in a separate area of coastal CA near San Francisco Bay. Surface high pressure will be pervasive over much of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the Eastern US and get reinforced by a disturbance moving from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West will slowly shift east to the Rockies as a mid-level low/trough approaches the CA coast. In the low levels, a cold front of arctic origin will quickly push south/southeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the FL Peninsula during the day. A non-zero thunderstorm chance may extend from the shelf waters of the FL Keys into south FL, and in a separate area of coastal CA near San Francisco Bay. Surface high pressure will be pervasive over much of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will reside over the Eastern US and get reinforced by a disturbance moving from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley. Farther west, a mid-level ridge over the Intermountain West will slowly shift east to the Rockies as a mid-level low/trough approaches the CA coast. In the low levels, a cold front of arctic origin will quickly push south/southeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico through the FL Peninsula during the day. A non-zero thunderstorm chance may extend from the shelf waters of the FL Keys into south FL, and in a separate area of coastal CA near San Francisco Bay. Surface high pressure will be pervasive over much of the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 01/18/2024 Read more