Severe Storms

MD 0080 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220106Z - 220500Z SUMMARY...Increasing potential for freezing rain with potential for quick ice accumulations. DISCUSSION...A region of light to moderate precipitation is observed moving northeastward into southwestern Oklahoma over the last hour. Surface temperatures are hovering around freezing near the Red River with a drop into the upper 20s moving northeast. With dew points in the teens, further reduction of temperatures through wet-bulb cooling can be expected as the heavier precipitation moves northward. The 00z sounding from OUN shows a pronounced warm nose from 925 mb to around 800 mb with surface temperatures below freezing. Though some dry air remains around 750 mb and near the surface, the profile has moistened. It is noteworthy that hi-res guidance is generally running a little warm over the last 12-24 hours in trends when compared to RTMA. The RAP and HRRR seem to be coming into better alignment with current conditions over the last 3-6 hours. Expectation is for freezing drizzle and rain to increase in coverage over the next few hours across southeastern Oklahoma. Locations that are already below freezing will likely see quick icing, especially across elevated surfaces. Given that ground temperatures are already below freezing, this will likely impact travel with slick conditions developing quickly through the next few hours. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34409839 34739806 35189754 35339717 35429687 35479670 35509649 35529618 35489581 35339562 35099550 34869540 34629538 34369540 34169546 33979576 33869601 33819636 33839667 33869713 33879733 33899783 33989814 34079836 34409839 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 21 22:22:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 21 22:22:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more