Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far southwest Louisiana. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana... Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more