Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern through the day on Tuesday is expected to be characterized a large trough across the central and eastern US with a decaying cutoff low across the southwestern US. At the surface, this would result in a ridge near the Gulf Coast. Although winds across the northern and central Florida peninsula are currently forecast to be light, relative humidity may be in the 30-40% range. This may result in pockets of elevated fire conditions across this region. However, given the moist fuels and the uncertainty on wind speeds, will not introduce Elevated highlights for now. Elsewhere across the continental US, higher relative humidity is expected to generally keep fire concerns minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 03/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that a high may become at least a bit better established near/southwest of the Gulf of Alaska vicinity during this period, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, as the blocking inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to break down, the remnant Southwestern low is forecast to elongate east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley, toward the southern Rockies. To the east of this regime, confluent flow will generally be maintained to the east of the Rockies, as another vigorous short wave trough digs across the international border into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. It appears that this will be accompanied by a reinforcing low-level cold intrusion, as far south as the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys by 12Z Wednesday, and contribute to the maintenance of broad mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. At the same time, models indicate that upper ridging may build east-northeast of the subtropical latitudes, into portions of the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states. In the wake of the mid-level troughing, the boundary-layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by an initial intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. While a developing southerly low-level return flow may contribute to low-level moistening as far north as Deep South Texas by late Tuesday night, this will likely be preceded by the advection of a pronounced warm layer (centered around 700 mb) east of the Rio Grande river through much of central and southern Texas. ...Deep South Texas... At least some model output (perhaps most notably the NAM and ECMWF) continues to suggest that a developing area of mid-level ascent, aided by warm advection near the leading edge of the warm air emerging from the Mexican Plateau, may contribute to weak destabilization and elevated convection, some of which could become capable of producing lightning early Tuesday. ...Colorado Plateau into southern Rockies... Beneath the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures still around or below -20 to -22C) slowly shifting eastward across the region, destabilization aided by daytime heating probably will be sufficient to contribute to scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. ...California... Convective potential for Tuesday remains unclear beneath the weakening mid/upper ridging across the Sierra Nevada, and the residual cyclonic flow across parts of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California. However, most model output suggests that destabilization supportive of isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible, generally focused along the higher terrain. ..Kerr.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that a high may become at least a bit better established near/southwest of the Gulf of Alaska vicinity during this period, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, as the blocking inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to break down, the remnant Southwestern low is forecast to elongate east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley, toward the southern Rockies. To the east of this regime, confluent flow will generally be maintained to the east of the Rockies, as another vigorous short wave trough digs across the international border into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. It appears that this will be accompanied by a reinforcing low-level cold intrusion, as far south as the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys by 12Z Wednesday, and contribute to the maintenance of broad mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. At the same time, models indicate that upper ridging may build east-northeast of the subtropical latitudes, into portions of the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states. In the wake of the mid-level troughing, the boundary-layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by an initial intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. While a developing southerly low-level return flow may contribute to low-level moistening as far north as Deep South Texas by late Tuesday night, this will likely be preceded by the advection of a pronounced warm layer (centered around 700 mb) east of the Rio Grande river through much of central and southern Texas. ...Deep South Texas... At least some model output (perhaps most notably the NAM and ECMWF) continues to suggest that a developing area of mid-level ascent, aided by warm advection near the leading edge of the warm air emerging from the Mexican Plateau, may contribute to weak destabilization and elevated convection, some of which could become capable of producing lightning early Tuesday. ...Colorado Plateau into southern Rockies... Beneath the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures still around or below -20 to -22C) slowly shifting eastward across the region, destabilization aided by daytime heating probably will be sufficient to contribute to scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. ...California... Convective potential for Tuesday remains unclear beneath the weakening mid/upper ridging across the Sierra Nevada, and the residual cyclonic flow across parts of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California. However, most model output suggests that destabilization supportive of isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible, generally focused along the higher terrain. ..Kerr.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that a high may become at least a bit better established near/southwest of the Gulf of Alaska vicinity during this period, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, as the blocking inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to break down, the remnant Southwestern low is forecast to elongate east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley, toward the southern Rockies. To the east of this regime, confluent flow will generally be maintained to the east of the Rockies, as another vigorous short wave trough digs across the international border into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. It appears that this will be accompanied by a reinforcing low-level cold intrusion, as far south as the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys by 12Z Wednesday, and contribute to the maintenance of broad mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. At the same time, models indicate that upper ridging may build east-northeast of the subtropical latitudes, into portions of the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states. In the wake of the mid-level troughing, the boundary-layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by an initial intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. While a developing southerly low-level return flow may contribute to low-level moistening as far north as Deep South Texas by late Tuesday night, this will likely be preceded by the advection of a pronounced warm layer (centered around 700 mb) east of the Rio Grande river through much of central and southern Texas. ...Deep South Texas... At least some model output (perhaps most notably the NAM and ECMWF) continues to suggest that a developing area of mid-level ascent, aided by warm advection near the leading edge of the warm air emerging from the Mexican Plateau, may contribute to weak destabilization and elevated convection, some of which could become capable of producing lightning early Tuesday. ...Colorado Plateau into southern Rockies... Beneath the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures still around or below -20 to -22C) slowly shifting eastward across the region, destabilization aided by daytime heating probably will be sufficient to contribute to scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. ...California... Convective potential for Tuesday remains unclear beneath the weakening mid/upper ridging across the Sierra Nevada, and the residual cyclonic flow across parts of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California. However, most model output suggests that destabilization supportive of isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible, generally focused along the higher terrain. ..Kerr.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that a high may become at least a bit better established near/southwest of the Gulf of Alaska vicinity during this period, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, as the blocking inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to break down, the remnant Southwestern low is forecast to elongate east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley, toward the southern Rockies. To the east of this regime, confluent flow will generally be maintained to the east of the Rockies, as another vigorous short wave trough digs across the international border into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. It appears that this will be accompanied by a reinforcing low-level cold intrusion, as far south as the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys by 12Z Wednesday, and contribute to the maintenance of broad mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. At the same time, models indicate that upper ridging may build east-northeast of the subtropical latitudes, into portions of the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states. In the wake of the mid-level troughing, the boundary-layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by an initial intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. While a developing southerly low-level return flow may contribute to low-level moistening as far north as Deep South Texas by late Tuesday night, this will likely be preceded by the advection of a pronounced warm layer (centered around 700 mb) east of the Rio Grande river through much of central and southern Texas. ...Deep South Texas... At least some model output (perhaps most notably the NAM and ECMWF) continues to suggest that a developing area of mid-level ascent, aided by warm advection near the leading edge of the warm air emerging from the Mexican Plateau, may contribute to weak destabilization and elevated convection, some of which could become capable of producing lightning early Tuesday. ...Colorado Plateau into southern Rockies... Beneath the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures still around or below -20 to -22C) slowly shifting eastward across the region, destabilization aided by daytime heating probably will be sufficient to contribute to scattered weak afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. ...California... Convective potential for Tuesday remains unclear beneath the weakening mid/upper ridging across the Sierra Nevada, and the residual cyclonic flow across parts of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California. However, most model output suggests that destabilization supportive of isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible, generally focused along the higher terrain. ..Kerr.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk diminishes by early evening. ...FL Peninsula... A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period. The primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be displaced from the FL Peninsula. In the low levels, a cold front will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by late evening. However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid to high-level westerly flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple of transient supercells. Models currently indicate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage and/or hail risk. The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by early evening with the severe threat diminishing. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk diminishes by early evening. ...FL Peninsula... A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period. The primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be displaced from the FL Peninsula. In the low levels, a cold front will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by late evening. However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid to high-level westerly flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple of transient supercells. Models currently indicate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage and/or hail risk. The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by early evening with the severe threat diminishing. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk diminishes by early evening. ...FL Peninsula... A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period. The primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be displaced from the FL Peninsula. In the low levels, a cold front will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by late evening. However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid to high-level westerly flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple of transient supercells. Models currently indicate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage and/or hail risk. The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by early evening with the severe threat diminishing. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk diminishes by early evening. ...FL Peninsula... A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period. The primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be displaced from the FL Peninsula. In the low levels, a cold front will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by late evening. However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong mid to high-level westerly flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple of transient supercells. Models currently indicate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage and/or hail risk. The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by early evening with the severe threat diminishing. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... A split flow pattern, featuring an amplifying upper trough over the East and a closed low over the Desert Southwest, are the notable large-scale features tonight. A mid-level disturbance embedded within strong west-southwesterly flow over the northeast Gulf Coast region, will continue east and be offshore the Carolina coast by early Monday morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf will likely continue into the overnight with isolated thunderstorms possibly moving across portions of the western and northern FL Peninsula tonight. Weak instability (i.e., weak lapse rates) observed on the 00z Tampa Bay sounding and gradual diurnal cooling of the boundary layer will tend to limit storm intensity. Severe thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Gulf Coast tonight. ..Smith.. 03/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... A split flow pattern, featuring an amplifying upper trough over the East and a closed low over the Desert Southwest, are the notable large-scale features tonight. A mid-level disturbance embedded within strong west-southwesterly flow over the northeast Gulf Coast region, will continue east and be offshore the Carolina coast by early Monday morning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf will likely continue into the overnight with isolated thunderstorms possibly moving across portions of the western and northern FL Peninsula tonight. Weak instability (i.e., weak lapse rates) observed on the 00z Tampa Bay sounding and gradual diurnal cooling of the boundary layer will tend to limit storm intensity. Severe thunderstorm activity is not expected across the Gulf Coast tonight. ..Smith.. 03/18/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 17 22:08:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 17 22:08:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A persistent cut-off low across the Southwest will start to advance east toward the middle of this week. As this occurs, some light to moderate rain is expected across portions of the southern High Plains which will further wet fuels which are already mostly moist. Next weekend, troughing and strong mid-level flow will resume across the Southwest which will lead to warmer temperatures, drying and gusty winds across the southern High Plains. There is moderate consensus for the jet to eject across the Plains next Sunday which will likely bring dry and breezy conditions to the southern High Plains. This pattern will likely support critical meteorological conditions, but fuels will be questionable. If sufficient drying occurs late this week and over the weekend, critical probabilities may need to be added later, but at this time it appears fuels will likely remain too moist to support a large-fire threat by next weekend. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A persistent cut-off low across the Southwest will start to advance east toward the middle of this week. As this occurs, some light to moderate rain is expected across portions of the southern High Plains which will further wet fuels which are already mostly moist. Next weekend, troughing and strong mid-level flow will resume across the Southwest which will lead to warmer temperatures, drying and gusty winds across the southern High Plains. There is moderate consensus for the jet to eject across the Plains next Sunday which will likely bring dry and breezy conditions to the southern High Plains. This pattern will likely support critical meteorological conditions, but fuels will be questionable. If sufficient drying occurs late this week and over the weekend, critical probabilities may need to be added later, but at this time it appears fuels will likely remain too moist to support a large-fire threat by next weekend. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more