Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Changes are not warranted to the 20z outlook. Isolated thunderstorm threat continues tonight across portions of TX, southeast AZ, and along the CA Coast. The greatest risk for lightning is within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the southern Plains, primarily along the I35 corridor in TX. LLJ will increase across the southern Plains this evening, and increasing PW values atop cool/stable boundary layer will aid buoyancy for elevated convection across this region. Steep lapse rates across southeast AZ may yet allow a few updrafts to generate lightning across this region, but lightning has proven very sparse with this activity. Isolated flashes of lightning may also develop along the CA Coast later tonight in response to a short-wave trough that will approach this region after midnight. ..Darrow.. 01/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 21 22:22:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 21 22:22:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the extended period due to moist fuels and continued wetting rain for 2/3rds of the CONUS. The only region with minimal precipitation will be the northern Rockies/northern Plains where extensive snowcover is present and cold temperatures are expected to persist. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more