Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are expected primarily this evening the Florida Keys and a part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...South FL, including the FL Keys... Well-defined upper low is progressing east-southeast across the central Gulf States, in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift into southeast AL by the end of the period. At lower latitudes, a well-organized MCS has evolved ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough over the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico. Latest radar data exhibits a strong/severe squall line extends from roughly 30 miles southwest of Marco Island to about 40 miles west of Key West. Additionally, isolated supercells have evolved ahead of the primary squall line, especially over the FL Straits and just off the southeast FL Atlantic Coast. Ample shear/buoyancy will continue to support organized, rotating updrafts capable of generating tornadoes. The primary risk with the squall line should be damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes may also be embedded along the line. This activity will progress across south Florida by late this evening. ..Darrow.. 03/23/2024 Read more

MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA KEYS...SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Areas affected...Florida Keys...South Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222329Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado, wind and hail threat may develop over the next couple of hours over the Florida Keys and south Florida. Weather watch issuance may become necessary this evening. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave trough over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico with a distinct vorticity max approaching south Florida. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity max is aiding the development of a squall line about 90 statute miles to the west of Key West. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F across the Florida Keys. Temperatures in the upper 70s F are yielding MLCAPE in the 600 to 800 J/kg range according to the RAP. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West is impressive with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2, and a clockwise curved hodograph. This will likely support a severe threat, as a squall-line approaches and then moves across the Florida Keys this evening. A tornado threat will be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the line, and with supercells if discrete cells can develop ahead of the line. A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is also expected to accompany the squall-line as it moves across the Florida Keys, most likely during the 02Z and 05Z timeframe. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 25888002 25938032 25878053 25688099 25498171 25338241 25078276 24788290 24458283 24208256 24148191 24388096 24768019 25287985 25717983 25888002 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 22 23:32:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 22 22:08:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more