Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will feature a few weak perturbations moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will migrate east from the MS Valley to the East during the period as a trough departs the Northeast. In the low levels, surface high pressure over the OH Valley will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic states by early Monday morning. Southeasterly low-level return flow will strengthen Sunday night across TX commensurate with a warm-air advection regime. Showers will gradually become more prevalent Sunday night with a few elevated thunderstorms becoming increasingly possible. Weak instability will preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will feature a few weak perturbations moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will migrate east from the MS Valley to the East during the period as a trough departs the Northeast. In the low levels, surface high pressure over the OH Valley will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic states by early Monday morning. Southeasterly low-level return flow will strengthen Sunday night across TX commensurate with a warm-air advection regime. Showers will gradually become more prevalent Sunday night with a few elevated thunderstorms becoming increasingly possible. Weak instability will preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will feature a few weak perturbations moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will migrate east from the MS Valley to the East during the period as a trough departs the Northeast. In the low levels, surface high pressure over the OH Valley will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic states by early Monday morning. Southeasterly low-level return flow will strengthen Sunday night across TX commensurate with a warm-air advection regime. Showers will gradually become more prevalent Sunday night with a few elevated thunderstorms becoming increasingly possible. Weak instability will preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico will feature a few weak perturbations moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. Farther east, a mid-level ridge will migrate east from the MS Valley to the East during the period as a trough departs the Northeast. In the low levels, surface high pressure over the OH Valley will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic states by early Monday morning. Southeasterly low-level return flow will strengthen Sunday night across TX commensurate with a warm-air advection regime. Showers will gradually become more prevalent Sunday night with a few elevated thunderstorms becoming increasingly possible. Weak instability will preclude a severe risk. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS today. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today. ...Discussion... A slowly progressive upper flow field is expected across the U.S. today, as troughing near the West Coast gradually moves eastward/inland, and a second trough over the East advances toward/into the western Atlantic. In between, ridging initially over the Rockies will progress steadily into/across the Plains. At the surface, a continental polar airmass will prevail east of the Rockies, with a 1040-plus high now centered in the Mid Missouri Valley area forecast to reach the Mid-Ohio and Tennessee Valleys early Sunday morning. With the cold/dry air low-level air in place, thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West, a lack of instability suggests that -- despite widespread precipitation forecast to continue spreading inland, thunderstorms are unlikely through the period. ..Goss.. 01/20/2024 Read more