Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 4/Tuesday across parts of the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast and vicinity. The southern extent of a highly amplified upper trough will be present over these areas, with enhanced mid/upper-level flow supporting strong deep-layer shear and the potential for continued thunderstorm organization. However, the surface warm sector is likely to become increasingly confined to coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon/evening. This lowers confidence in appreciable inland destabilization occurring ahead of a cold front and thunderstorms likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning. Therefore, a 15% severe area has not been included for Tuesday. The southern portion of the upper trough should move slowly eastward across portions of the Southeast on Day 5/Wednesday. Rich low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of coastal GA/SC and FL. Severe potential across these areas appears fairly low given only weak instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. But, an isolated/marginal severe threat may exist in this narrow corridor ahead of a cold front. By Day 6/Thursday, medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the southern branch of upper troughing will advance more quickly eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. A related cold front should sweep eastward across the FL Peninsula through the day as a coastal low develops over/near the eastern Carolinas. While some severe threat may exist with any frontal convection, instability appears too weak to support inclusion of a 15% severe area for Thursday across FL. There are indications that by late next week and weekend, another upper trough may amplify as it moves over the western CONUS. Severe potential in this extended time frame will largely be tied to whether sufficient low-level moisture will be able to advance northward across the southern/central Plains as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the High Plains. At this point, it appears a somewhat better severe threat may exist beyond Day 8/Saturday. Read more

MD 0285 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern New York into southern Vermont Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 230413Z - 230915Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are likely over the next several hours. 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates and reduced visibility are possible in the heaviest snow bands. DISCUSSION...925-850 mb warm-air advection continues to transport moisture into a sub-freezing troposphere amid a gradually amplifying mid-level trough approaching from the west. A shield of widespread moderate snow is already overspreading much of central and southern NY, with a couple instances of heavy snow already reported via surface observations. Increasing magnitudes and coverage of heavier snowfall rates (i.e. 1+ inches/hr) are expected to continue through the night as the approaching mid-level trough further amplifies and low-level warm-air advection persists. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42667729 43177664 43567563 43577427 43507298 43357257 43027251 42837279 42587348 42457418 42487620 42667729 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds should occur Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale upper troughing, with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, is forecast to continue advancing eastward across the central CONUS on Monday. The primary feature of interest for severe potential will be a shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Plains that will eject across the lower MS Valley by the end of the period. With the primary surface low over the Upper Midwest, a secondary low should develop across the lower MS Valley Monday evening and overnight into early Tuesday morning, as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A strong (40-60 kt) southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop in this time frame, which should aid in the transport of 60s surface dewpoints northward across LA/MS and southern AR. Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of central/east TX along or just ahead of a cold front. Current expectations are for more robust convective development to occur by Monday afternoon across parts of east TX into LA, as at least weak instability develops in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Updraft organization is anticipated, including the potential for pre-frontal supercells. But, this scenario remains rather uncertain. A greater likelihood exists for frontal convection in the form of a QLCS, posing a threat for both damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes as it continues eastward across LA/MS and vicinity Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The potential for nocturnal tornadoes is apparent, especially across northeastern LA into central/southern MS, as low-level shear should increase in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet. If confidence increases that supercells will develop ahead of the front/squall line, then greater severe probabilities would likely be needed. ...Iowa... A cold-core mid/upper trough will move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest Monday. Even though low-level moisture should remain quite limited, most guidance shows low 50s surface dewpoints present ahead of a deep surface low across IA Monday afternoon. Just modest daytime heating will support weak destabilization given the cold mid-level temperatures, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized thunderstorms. Isolated hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps even a tornado or two all appear possible with any sustained low-topped convection. ..Gleason.. 03/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy and dry meteorological surface conditions. Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more