Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of south-central into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. ...South-central/east TX into western/northern LA... A mid/upper-level trough will move only slowly eastward across the Southwest into the southern Plains on Tuesday. Within the larger-scale trough, multiple shortwaves will emanate from northern Mexico and generally move northeastward toward the ArkLaTex region. This pattern will result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms across parts of TX/LA, as rich low-level moisture streams inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Severe-thunderstorm potential remains somewhat unclear within this regime. However, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will become favorable for organized convection within the broad warm-advection regime from the TX coastal plain into parts of LA. While instability will likely remain rather weak near/north of the effective warm front, the favorable wind profiles and increasing moisture may support the development of at least transient supercells or bowing segments within a large cluster of convection that is expected to move from east TX into LA through the day. Some threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado may evolve if any organized storm structures can be sustained. Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, another ejecting shortwave may aid in redevelopment of convection from south-central TX toward the mid/upper TX Coast. This could lead to isolated elevated supercell development across south-central TX, and some potential for near-surface-based supercell development near the coast by early Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of south-central into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. ...South-central/east TX into western/northern LA... A mid/upper-level trough will move only slowly eastward across the Southwest into the southern Plains on Tuesday. Within the larger-scale trough, multiple shortwaves will emanate from northern Mexico and generally move northeastward toward the ArkLaTex region. This pattern will result in multiple rounds of thunderstorms across parts of TX/LA, as rich low-level moisture streams inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Severe-thunderstorm potential remains somewhat unclear within this regime. However, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will become favorable for organized convection within the broad warm-advection regime from the TX coastal plain into parts of LA. While instability will likely remain rather weak near/north of the effective warm front, the favorable wind profiles and increasing moisture may support the development of at least transient supercells or bowing segments within a large cluster of convection that is expected to move from east TX into LA through the day. Some threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a tornado may evolve if any organized storm structures can be sustained. Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, another ejecting shortwave may aid in redevelopment of convection from south-central TX toward the mid/upper TX Coast. This could lead to isolated elevated supercell development across south-central TX, and some potential for near-surface-based supercell development near the coast by early Wednesday morning. ..Dean.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0082 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern MO...Western IL Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220927Z - 221430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates generally from 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, is possible from central/eastern MO into western IL over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations from central MO through western IL have increasingly reported freezing rain over the past hour as persistent light precipitation erodes any dry layers preventing precipitation from reaching the surface. The heaviest precipitation is currently moving northeastward through central MO, and the general expectation is for reports of freezing rain to become more widespread across eastern MO and western IL over the next hour or two. Precipitation is generally light, with observations over central MO near the heaviest precipitation generally reporting 0.01" to 0.03" an hour. These rates will likely hold as the heaviest precipitation translates northeastward over the next few hours. Thereafter, weakening warm-air advection should lead to lighter precipitation over the Lower OH Valley. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37599269 38319343 39049355 40069311 40829166 40858975 40068867 38368874 37248964 37019124 37599269 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more