Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more