Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL into extreme southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092057Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist through late afternoon, though the threat should become increasingly isolated with time. DISCUSSION...A prefrontal convective band is ongoing from north FL into extreme southeast GA late this afternoon. In general, storms have gradually become less organized with time, possibly due to weak surface convergence ahead of the cold front and relatively limited large-scale ascent. However, buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and deep-layer flow/shear (effective shear of 50-60 kt) are still favorable for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be the main hazards, though with the threat expected to become increasingly isolated with time, new watch issuance after the 4 PM EST expiration of WW 34 is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29888392 30668248 31018152 30618126 30198124 29898148 29618222 29498272 29478308 29528357 29888392 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

MD 0212 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 34... FOR NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL into southeast GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 34... Valid 091852Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two may continue through the afternoon. Local extension of WW 34 may be needed. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms with embedded supercell structures is ongoing at 1845 UTC from southeast GA into north FL. While some gradual veering of low-level flow has been noted with time, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and rather strong low-level (with 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear continue to be supportive of organized convection. Occasional embedded supercell structures continue to be noted, and some threat for a tornado or two may persist through much of the afternoon, especially with the supercell currently over Brantley County, GA. Otherwise, locally damaging gusts will remain possible with the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates have been observed. While an eventual weakening trend is expected as stronger large-scale ascent moves away from the region, some severe threat will persist beyond the 2 PM EST expiration time of WW 34. As a result, local watch extension may be needed to address the threat through late afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30128145 29828355 30028400 30408380 30538369 31468191 31778134 31698121 31108123 30608129 30128145 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more