Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more