Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more