Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Overall convective potential will be considerably limited on Monday. A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level pattern will continue over the CONUS with high pressure remaining prevalent east of the Rockies. An inland-spreading upper trough and warm conveyor over the Pacific Northwest could contribute to a few thunderstorms across the region during the day, and perhaps more so late at night when mid-level lapse rates will be steepest as a secondary vort max approaches coastal Washington. Elsewhere, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies during the day, but the overall potential and coverage are currently expected to remain below 10 percent in the presence of limited moisture. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... A relatively quiescent synoptic pattern for deep convection will return across much of the CONUS. A trio of low-end thunder potential areas should be confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest, coastal New England, and south Florida. In the Pacific Northwest, steepening mid-level lapse rates and large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should foster potential for sporadic lightning flashes within low-topped convection. This activity should steadily progress from coastal areas in the morning to farther inland during the afternoon. In coastal New England, scant elevated buoyancy in conjunction with very strong forcing for ascent may support early morning thunderstorms lingering beyond 12Z before diminishing by midday. Finally, in south FL, a cold front will sink south through the day and yield attempts at deep convection along it. Relatively warm/dry mid-levels combined with decidedly westerly low-level flow indicate updrafts should struggle to become robust. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be only around 10 percent. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability damaging wind threat may persist into late evening in parts of north Florida. ...North FL... Lingering deep convection across the north portion of the peninsula should gradually slide east-southeast through late evening before eventually decaying overnight in the central part of the state. Surface winds have largely veered with slowly diminishing low-level flow evident in the JAX VWP time-series. Nevertheless, strong speed shear within a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile might support a storm acquiring transient mid-level rotation. 00Z TBW sounding sampled a relatively dry 800-500 mb layer and this could aid in a stronger convective gust occurring through about 03Z. ..Grams.. 03/10/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 9 23:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0213 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL into extreme southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092057Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist through late afternoon, though the threat should become increasingly isolated with time. DISCUSSION...A prefrontal convective band is ongoing from north FL into extreme southeast GA late this afternoon. In general, storms have gradually become less organized with time, possibly due to weak surface convergence ahead of the cold front and relatively limited large-scale ascent. However, buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and deep-layer flow/shear (effective shear of 50-60 kt) are still favorable for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be the main hazards, though with the threat expected to become increasingly isolated with time, new watch issuance after the 4 PM EST expiration of WW 34 is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29888392 30668248 31018152 30618126 30198124 29898148 29618222 29498272 29478308 29528357 29888392 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z This week will feature a progressive pattern with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs expected to move through the Southwest and southern Plains. This will lead to periods of elevated to critical fire weather concerns Monday to Wednesday. ...D3/Mon - TX/OK Panhandle into southwest Kansas, northeast New Mexico and far southeast Colorado... Weak lee troughing will resume across the central High Plains on Monday as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening southwesterly flow. In addition, deep mixing will also bring some stronger mid-level flow to the surface. Where this deeply mixed airmass and stronger mid-level flow overlaps the strong surface winds is where Critical conditions are most likely, from northeast New Mexico into far southwest Kansas. ...D4/Tue - Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico... Stronger mid-level flow will push into southern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Tuesday. Some critical fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of Far West Texas and far southeast New Mexico where this stronger mid-level flow overspreads deep mixing. For now have highlighted the area with the highest confidence for stronger mid-level flow, but these probabilities will likely expand as the forecast becomes more certain. ...D5/Wed - Southern High Plains... Some critical fire weather conditions are possible on Day5/Tue, but are more likely on Day6/Wed when a strong mid-level jet moves across the southern High Plains. A surface cyclone and associated strong pressure gradient is expected across the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, a deeply mixed airmass is expected with temperatures in the 70s to 80s. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely in this region. However, there will also be a more favorable corridor for even stronger winds where the mid-level jet overspreads this deeply mixed airmass. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more