Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible through early evening across parts of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas. ...20z Update FL/GA... Ongoing cluster of storms across north FL and southern GA has shown persistent organization with a QLCS and some supercell structures. Additional storm development over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to spread inland across the northern peninsula through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The downstream environment should remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and a tornado or two into the evening. The severe risk should begin to wane tonight as low-level flow continues to veer and large-scale forcing for ascent moves away to the northeast. ...Carolinas... Farther north, persistent cloud cover has remained in place north of a stationary frontal zone from the NC/SC border toward Cape Fear. With limited heating, poor destabilization should limit thunderstorm development and the associated severe risk. The MRGL and SLGT have been trimmed out of these areas. To the south across eastern GA and SC, broken clouds have allowed for slow destabilization this afternoon. However, it remains unclear if additional storm development will occur through the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Surface convergence is modest and surface flow has veered considerably. Recent HRRR and RAP soundings do show minimal MLCINH suggesting at least some risk for redevelopment late this afternoon. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado with the strongest storms. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. Read more

MD 0212 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 34... FOR NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...North FL into southeast GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 34... Valid 091852Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two may continue through the afternoon. Local extension of WW 34 may be needed. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms with embedded supercell structures is ongoing at 1845 UTC from southeast GA into north FL. While some gradual veering of low-level flow has been noted with time, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and rather strong low-level (with 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear continue to be supportive of organized convection. Occasional embedded supercell structures continue to be noted, and some threat for a tornado or two may persist through much of the afternoon, especially with the supercell currently over Brantley County, GA. Otherwise, locally damaging gusts will remain possible with the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates have been observed. While an eventual weakening trend is expected as stronger large-scale ascent moves away from the region, some severe threat will persist beyond the 2 PM EST expiration time of WW 34. As a result, local watch extension may be needed to address the threat through late afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30128145 29828355 30028400 30408380 30538369 31468191 31778134 31698121 31108123 30608129 30128145 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward on Sunday as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN TO 25 WSW SAV TO 55 ESE SAV. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WW 34 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME PRIOR TO 19Z EXPIRATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-047-065-079-123-129-091940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305-091940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN TO 25 WSW SAV TO 55 ESE SAV. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WW 34 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME PRIOR TO 19Z EXPIRATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-047-065-079-123-129-091940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305-091940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PFN TO 25 WSW SAV TO 55 ESE SAV. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WW 34 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME PRIOR TO 19Z EXPIRATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-047-065-079-123-129-091940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305-091940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 34 TORNADO FL GA CW 091140Z - 091900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 34 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and eastern Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 640 AM until 200 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will shift eastward across the watch area through midday, in a destabilizing environment, while embedded cells pose a threat for damaging to severe gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles either side of a line from 5 miles south of Panama City FL to 5 miles northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 33. Watch number 33 will not be in effect after 640 AM EST. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Amplifying and progressive mid-level flow will continue late this weekend across the US as a large upper trough moves offshore over the East. At the same time, a shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest as transient ridging develops over a southern stream cutoff across the central CONUS. A cold front, associated with the eastern trough, will continue to move offshore. Behind this front, a much cooler air mass, and high pressure, will suppress thunderstorm chances over all but a small portion of south FL and coastal southern New England. Marginal buoyancy is expected to limit areal thunderstorm coverage and severe weather appears unlikely. To the west, weak ascent/orographic lift, and inland moisture transport from the shoreward moving shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Coast, over the Cascades and into the northern Rockies. Here, storm coverage will remain low due to scant buoyancy. However, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates from cold air advection aloft may support a few low-topped storms with lightning flash coverage near 10%. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Amplifying and progressive mid-level flow will continue late this weekend across the US as a large upper trough moves offshore over the East. At the same time, a shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest as transient ridging develops over a southern stream cutoff across the central CONUS. A cold front, associated with the eastern trough, will continue to move offshore. Behind this front, a much cooler air mass, and high pressure, will suppress thunderstorm chances over all but a small portion of south FL and coastal southern New England. Marginal buoyancy is expected to limit areal thunderstorm coverage and severe weather appears unlikely. To the west, weak ascent/orographic lift, and inland moisture transport from the shoreward moving shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Coast, over the Cascades and into the northern Rockies. Here, storm coverage will remain low due to scant buoyancy. However, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates from cold air advection aloft may support a few low-topped storms with lightning flash coverage near 10%. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Amplifying and progressive mid-level flow will continue late this weekend across the US as a large upper trough moves offshore over the East. At the same time, a shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest as transient ridging develops over a southern stream cutoff across the central CONUS. A cold front, associated with the eastern trough, will continue to move offshore. Behind this front, a much cooler air mass, and high pressure, will suppress thunderstorm chances over all but a small portion of south FL and coastal southern New England. Marginal buoyancy is expected to limit areal thunderstorm coverage and severe weather appears unlikely. To the west, weak ascent/orographic lift, and inland moisture transport from the shoreward moving shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Coast, over the Cascades and into the northern Rockies. Here, storm coverage will remain low due to scant buoyancy. However, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates from cold air advection aloft may support a few low-topped storms with lightning flash coverage near 10%. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Amplifying and progressive mid-level flow will continue late this weekend across the US as a large upper trough moves offshore over the East. At the same time, a shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest as transient ridging develops over a southern stream cutoff across the central CONUS. A cold front, associated with the eastern trough, will continue to move offshore. Behind this front, a much cooler air mass, and high pressure, will suppress thunderstorm chances over all but a small portion of south FL and coastal southern New England. Marginal buoyancy is expected to limit areal thunderstorm coverage and severe weather appears unlikely. To the west, weak ascent/orographic lift, and inland moisture transport from the shoreward moving shortwave trough may support isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Coast, over the Cascades and into the northern Rockies. Here, storm coverage will remain low due to scant buoyancy. However, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates from cold air advection aloft may support a few low-topped storms with lightning flash coverage near 10%. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2024 Read more