Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more

MD 0214 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern New Hampshire into western Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 100427Z - 100930Z SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow appears most likely to become focused across the mountains of northern New Hampshire into northwestern Maine overnight into daybreak Sunday, including hourly rates increasing to 1-2+ inches per hour. DISCUSSION...A developing surface cyclone appears to be undergoing a period of more rapid deepening as it migrates across the northern Mid Atlantic region toward southern New England. Strengthening deep-layer ascent to the north-northeast of this feature, supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection beneath an increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow field, is in the process of overspreading much of eastern New York and western New England, accompanied by moderate to heavy precipitation. Thermodynamic profiles near or below freezing are generally focused across the higher terrain, and with further low-level warming, may become increasingly confined to the mountains of northern New Hampshire into northwestern Maine overnight. This is where ensemble output (including the latest NCEP SREF and HREF) suggest highest probabilities for heavy snow rates developing and being maintained, perhaps at rates in excess of 2 inches per hour by 09-12Z. It appears that precipitable water within the saturating, sub-freezing profiles across this region may increase up to around .70 inches. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that this will coincide with a period of intensifying lift within a layer between roughly 600-500 mb, where the environment will become most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth with temperatures around -15 C. It appears that a fairly deep layer layer through the lowest few kilometers above ground level may become characterized by isothermal profiles near freezing, contributing to potential for considerable continuing snow flake growth via aggregation before reaching the surface as a "heavy, wet" snow. ..Kerr.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX... LAT...LON 45247007 44937001 44097102 43867142 44037185 44787129 45567048 45247007 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...South-central Plains to Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A complex forecast scenario exists on Tuesday attributable to limited initial moisture return, uncertainties regarding mid-level capping, as well as Day 3-typical guidance variability regarding mass fields and thermodynamic details. Current bottom-line assessment is that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur mainly across parts of eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and western Missouri/northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lee-side cyclogenesis will become increasingly prevalent across the central Plains on Tuesday, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses eastward across the south-central Plains. Low-level moisture will occur during the day, but surface dewpoints should still generally be limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F to the east of the Oklahoma/north Texas dryline, and the southeast of a front across eastern Kansas and the nearby Missouri Valley. While early-season moisture content will be limited, a few surface-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline/triple-point vicinity within a marginally unstable environment, with a slightly higher potential for increasingly elevated thunderstorm development Tuesday night including areas from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Marginal buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of 40+ kt westerlies, could yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions, afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas. Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such, D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation. Trends will continue to be monitored. Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions. As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more