Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have become confined to northeast WA in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This weak, low-topped convection should diminish as it shifts east of the meager buoyancy plume sampled by the 00Z OTX sounding. Thunder probabilities will become negligible across the northern Rockies after 03-04Z. ..Grams.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have become confined to northeast WA in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This weak, low-topped convection should diminish as it shifts east of the meager buoyancy plume sampled by the 00Z OTX sounding. Thunder probabilities will become negligible across the northern Rockies after 03-04Z. ..Grams.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have become confined to northeast WA in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This weak, low-topped convection should diminish as it shifts east of the meager buoyancy plume sampled by the 00Z OTX sounding. Thunder probabilities will become negligible across the northern Rockies after 03-04Z. ..Grams.. 03/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 10 22:07:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 10 22:07:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A trough will amplify across the western CONUS on D3/Tue and D4/Wed with lee cyclogenesis in the central Plains and strengthening mid-level flow across the Southwest. This will lead to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D3/Tue- Southern High Plains... Lee cyclogenesis and a deeply mixed atmosphere will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains on Tuesday. The worst conditions are expected across portions of Far West Texas where mid-level flow will be somewhat stronger and mixing is expected to be deeper. ...D4/Wed - Southern High Plains... On Wednesday, critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains. This is a result of strengthening mid-level flow (50-60 mph at 500mb) and a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Much of this region has been dry over the past week and significant drying will continue leading up to Wednesday. Therefore, a broad region is likely to have significant fire weather concerns on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more