Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High Plains. ...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical... An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity dropping in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ...Southern High Plains Critical... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30 mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such, a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low. ..Thornton.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes, are expected today across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move into the Intermountain West today, as a 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. In response, a surface low will deepen across far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. To the east of the surface low, strong moisture advection will occur. By afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s F over eastern Kansas and much of Missouri, where an east-to-west corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop. A dryline will likely setup further west over south-central Kansas. Scattered convective initiation appears likely along and near the instability axis by late afternoon, with storm coverage expanding markedly during the early evening. Multiple clusters of organized thunderstorms will likely develop over parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. In response to the approaching mid-level jet, an area of very steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to spread northeastward into the central Plains during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, along with 40 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2 suggesting that a tornado threat will also likely develop. The greatest tornado threat is expected in the early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Wind damage will also be possible. ...Southern Plains... Strong moisture advection will take place today across the southern Plains, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F across north Texas and eastern Oklahoma. A dryline will develop along the western edge of this moist airmass during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the moist axis increase MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg by afternoon, but have a capping inversion over most of the southern Plains. This should keep convective initiation very isolated. RAP forecast soundings by late afternoon to the east of the dryline have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. The deep-layer shear and instability will easily support supercell development with any updraft that can grow upscale as the cap becomes weaker in the late afternoon. If an organized cell can develop and persist, isolated large hail, strong gusts and a marginal tornado threat would be possible. However, this threat is expected to be highly conditional. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/13/2024 Read more

MD 0217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central missouri and southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130334Z - 130500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail remains possible, but appears likely to generally diminish through 11 PM-Midnight. DISCUSSION...Near the western periphery of the modestly strengthening and slowly veering southerly low-level jet, stronger ascent associated with low-level warm advection and inflow of better low-level moisture remain focused on the western flank of the upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms, east of the Greater Kansas City area. Similar forcing and stronger convective layer shear may also be maintaining the more isolated cell now to the east-southeast of Joplin, with the strongest storms still accompanied by a continuing risk for severe hail based on latest MRMS data. However, warming farther aloft is slowly underway across much of western Missouri, as the the mid-level short wave trough and associated cold core progress east-southeastward into the middle Mississippi Valley. It appears that this will contribute to substantive weakening of convection and diminishing hail potential through 04-06Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38909404 39379413 39359344 38859318 38459345 37959363 37559377 36819385 36979435 37309408 38369376 38909404 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening from far southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma into western and northern Missouri. ...Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma/Western and Northern Missouri... A 1004 mb low is currently analyzed over northeast Kansas, with the moist axis located from near Tulsa north-northeastward to the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. The RAP has a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, within which isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over eastern Kansas, and by weak low-level convergence. Ahead of the shortwave trough, convective coverage is expected to increase some this evening, as storms develop and move eastward across western and northern Missouri. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis have the strongest deep-layer shear in far southwest Missouri, where 0-6 km shear is near 40 knots according to the Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km should be enough for isolated severe hail, and a few marginally severe wind gusts. The threats are expected to decrease by late evening as instability weakens across the region. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 12 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 12 23:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...west central Missouri through eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122226Z - 122330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the potential evolution of isolated supercells posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...To the south and east of a weak low, embedded within broader surface troughing across much of the central Great Plains, the boundary-layer has become modestly deep and well mixed, with a corridor of limited low-level moisture return (including mid/upper 50s F surface dew points) contributing to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. This generally extends from near/west of Kansas City into the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, near the southern periphery of colder mid-level air (at or below -20C around 500 mb) associated with a digging short wave trough. Inhibition has slowly been eroded within peak afternoon heating, aided by large-scale ascent, particularly across the Greater Kansas City vicinity, where stronger low-level warm advection has become focused, and across the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, within the exit region of an east-southeastward propagating mid-level jet (50+ kt around 500 mb). Strongest deep-layer shear is focused closer to the mid-level jet core, where the initiation of vigorous discrete thunderstorm development seems most probable prior to sunset, before waning earlier with the loss of daytime heating. Farther north, high resolution convection allowing guidance has been suggestive that that higher probabilities for the initiation of sustained thunderstorm development will await nocturnal low-level jet strengthening, and enhancement of forcing associated with low-level warm advection, generally near/east of Kansas City. At least attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing throughout the destabilizing environment. Regardless of the timing of sustained initiation, isolated supercells structures may evolve and promote a period with potential for convection to produce marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39569575 39979472 39989373 39279284 38729357 38319419 37039438 36289503 36589626 37369595 38289594 39569575 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more