Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central/eastern Oklahoma into eastern KS and the Lower Missouri Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Wednesday will likely feature western CONUS troughing transitioning to largely zonal flow across the eastern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the larger western CONUS troughing, including one which may eject out of the central Plains and another that progresses through its western periphery. Evolution of the second shortwave, which is expected to mature into a closed low over southern NV/northwest AZ by early Thursday morning, will lead to a deepening of the parent upper troughing across the western CONUS and an amplifying the overall upper pattern. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period near the CO/OK/KS border intersection before shifting eastward throughout the day. A dryline will extend southward from this low, with some eastward progression of this feature expected as well. Warm sector east of this dryline in OK will likely be characterized by upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints, with higher dewpoints south in TX and slightly lower dewpoints north into KS. Given the presence of cool mid-level temperatures, and associated steep mid-level lapse rates, these dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for airmass destabilization ahead of the dryline across central/eastern OK where afternoon temperatures will likely be in the upper 70s. If convection initiation is realized, the overall environment should support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards. However, several uncertainties remain within the forecast including the eastern extent of the dryline, strength of the capping (i.e. mid-level temperatures), and quality of the low-level moisture return. These factors preclude introducing higher probabilities with this outlook, but higher probabilities could be needed later over portions of the southern Plains once these details become more predictable. Elevated thunderstorms are possible later in the evening from eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley as the low-level jet strengthens. Buoyancy will remain modest, but moderate deep-layer vertical shear and cold mid-level temperatures could result in some strong to severe storms capable of hail. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more