Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ..Thornton.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..Mosier.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will remain negligible across much of the CONUS through Monday night. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse moving east across the northern Great Basin amid minimal buoyancy might support a very isolated, low-topped thunderstorm in the northern UT vicinity during the afternoon. Otherwise, a pair of shortwave impulses will move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. While the lead impulse should lack appreciable lightning potential, it will aid in cooling mid-level temperatures. Scant surface-based buoyancy should develop ahead of the latter impulse Monday night, yielding a thunder probability around 10 percent early Tuesday morning. ..Grams/Thornton.. 03/11/2024 Read more