Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to peak in intensity this evening and persist on an isolated basis overnight, from parts of northern/central KS east towards the Lower Missouri Valley. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are the primary threats early, transitioning to a mixed large hail and damaging wind risk overnight. ...KS to the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley... Isolated strong to severe hail storms persist near the STL Metro Area (for additional information please see MCD 222), with more numerous strong to severe storms westward across the Lower MO Valley through north-central KS. 00Z TOP sounding sampled a favorable environment for very large hail with initially weak low-level flow and ample effective bulk shear coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. Low-level flow has increased over the past hour per TWX VWP data and a few stronger/longer-lived supercells may evolve within the north KS to Lower MO Valley corridor during the next few hours with threats of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The low-level jet/convergence will further strengthening yielding increasing upscale growth later this evening. The more prominent MCS/severe cluster development will probably evolve east-northeast from ongoing convection across northeast KS. A mixed large hail/damaging wind threat should generally be expected as this activity shifts along the warm front later tonight towards the MO/IL/IA border area. ..Grams.. 03/14/2024 Read more

MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132331Z - 140100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40 corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539 37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691 35219665 35279600 35599543 Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MDH TO 35 WSW JEF TO 30 E SZL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222 ..THORNTON..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-163-189-140140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON JERSEY MADISON MONROE ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-071-073-099-113-135-137-139-151-163-173-183- 189-219-510-140140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS WARREN Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-027-029-051-053-063-065-089-105-117-123-131-137-141-143- 147-157-163-167-169-179-183-195-201-140140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY CLOUD ELLIS ELLSWORTH GOVE GRAHAM JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS REPUBLIC ROOKS RUSSELL SALINE SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON NEC061-067-083-095-097-127-129-133-147-169-181-140140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GAGE HARLAN JEFFERSON JOHNSON NEMAHA NUCKOLLS PAWNEE RICHARDSON THAYER WEBSTER Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-121-127-139- 149-161-177-197-209-140140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-087-089-095-101- 107-115-117-121-159-165-175-177-195-140140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON Read more

MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132331Z - 140100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40 corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539 37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691 35219665 35279600 35599543 Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-140040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON JERSEY MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141- 151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-140040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE PHELPS PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 37... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 37... Valid 132329Z - 140130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues. SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central Missouri. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that mature over the next hour or two. Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri. MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a brief tornado will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620 39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364 38689488 Read more

WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 132050Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase across the region late this afternoon through early evening, including parts of the I-70/I-55 corridors. Large hail is expected to be the most common risk, with some potential for damaging winds and possibly a tornado into early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Columbia MO to 20 miles east of Scott Afb IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 13 23:01:02 UTC 2024.