Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BPT TO 25 NNW IER TO 40 SW GLH. ..SQUITIERI..11/20/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-202240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-053-059- 065-067-069-073-079-083-085-097-107-115-123-127-202240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

MD 2276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...Central/Southwest MS...Southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202114Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, will continue eastward into central and southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana later this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including several supercells, continue to evolve eastward over southeast TX and LA, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and associated cold front. Modest destabilization has occurred within the downstream air mass from west-central MS into southeast LA. This region is displaced north and east of the better low-level moisture over southwest LA, but a large area of mid to upper 60s dewpoints exists across south-central and southeast LA. This should continue to advect northeastward ahead of the approaching upper trough, contributing to further destabilization over the next few hours. Low-level flow is also expected to increase ahead of this upper trough, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to a continued threat for severe thunderstorms this evening. Given the strong shear, primary severe risk is tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, with some threat for damaging gusts and/or isolated hail as well. A watch will likely be needed within the next hour or two to address this severe potential. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31989122 32789080 32969009 32868950 32648917 32308896 32018889 31728901 31068930 30578977 30379056 30429140 30809168 31989122 Read more

MD 2275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202058Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...A pocket of destabilization has occurred near a surface low in southeast Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Low-level convergence associated with this surface low, combined with cool temperatures aloft and and the aforementioned instability has provided an environment favorable for scattered storm development this afternoon. Very strong mid-upper level flow is supporting rotating updrafts. Therefore, a few of these cells may be capable of isolated large hail for the next few hours. This threat will persist for a few hours and wane after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33679530 33869643 34069668 34209674 34659654 35029607 35109531 34849459 33939438 33639446 33599470 33679530 Read more

MD 2274 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 711... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...MUCH OF LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 711... Valid 202035Z - 202200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, continues. Greatest near-term tornado threat exists from far southeast Texas through west-central and central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a complex pattern with several different boundaries in place across far southeast TX and LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been increasing along an axis of pre-frontal convergence that exists just of ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. This pre-frontal trough exists roughly from the central LA/TX border (about 40 miles southwest of SHV) south-southwestward through Liberty County TX. Environment ahead of this trough continues to destabilize amid low-level moisture advection, with 70 deg F dewpoints in place ahead of this axis across southeast TX and southwest LA. This area of greater low-level moisture is advecting northward, coincident with strengthening low-level flow. This strengthening low-level flow is contributing to longer low-level hodographs and greater storm-relative helicity. As such, an increase in tornadic supercells appears possible over the next hour or two, particularly from Jasper County TX northeastward into west-central/central LA. ..Mosier.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30059255 29829313 29789387 30049456 30529464 31499420 32119397 32519324 32469247 32279218 31889206 31399201 30509230 30059255 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 20 20:05:27 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, at least a couple of which should be strong, scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail are expected through tonight, centered on parts of Louisiana across Mississippi. ...Lower MS Valley... Overall severe threat area appears increasingly focused within a messy, complex mode across the LA/MS region. Initial supercells across the Sabine Valley, embedded within a broader convective cluster that is driven by a low-level warm conveyor, should spread towards the Lower MS Valley. These will likely strengthen in tandem with increasing boundary-layer moisture from the central Gulf Coast. The relative greatest tornado potential may evolve along the southern corridor of sustained, semi-discrete supercells coincident with the apex of upper 60s surface dew points. The Fort Polk, LA VWP has sampled a steady increase in 0-3 km SRH over the past few hours, and the prior level 3-Enhanced Risk likely captures the greatest threat corridor for at least a couple strong tornadoes. Primary changes with this outlook are to trim the western extent behind the cold front and lower severe probabilities where low-level flow has veered ahead of the front, as well as to lower probabilities over the Mid-South region where the northern extent of the surface warm front has struggled to advance amid pervasive rainfall/stratus. ..Grams.. 11/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern/central Plains will progress slowly eastward through the period across the lower and mid MS Valley, while transitioning to a closed mid/upper-level low. At the surface, a weak low centered over southern/central OK this morning is forecast to develop across northeast TX and towards the ArkLaMiss by this evening. An associated warm front will continue to lift/mix northward through tonight across east TX into the lower MS Valley. A cold front attendant to the surface low will also sweep eastward over these regions through the period. Low-level moisture return is ongoing in earnest this morning across east TX into the lower MS Valley, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints becoming prevalent across the warm sector along and south of the diffuse warm front. Most guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 60s surface dewpoints will become more common by late this afternoon from far east TX into parts of southern/central LA/MS. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough and increasing low-level warm advection associated with a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet will both aid in the development of surface-based convection by early afternoon. Initial development will likely emanate from bands of elevated low-level warm-advection driven showers/thunderstorms ongoing across central into east TX. Rather strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt will easily support supercells with this initial activity. Around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should also be present with continued diurnal heating of the moistening low-level airmass, which will support surface-based thunderstorms as this convection spreads into LA this afternoon and early evening. Large hail may be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained. But, the tornado potential is expected to gradually increase this afternoon and evening from parts of far east TX into northern/central LA and southern/central MS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to around 35-40 kt. Favorable low-level shear and the best chance for several tornadoes will likely be maximized along/near the warm front this evening and tonight, with ample curvature noted in the 0-1 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast hodographs. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk, which still seems to capture the best corridor of strong tornado potential and scattered to possibly numerous damaging wind gusts. Cell mergers and some upscale growth seems likely this evening and overnight across the lower MS Valley. Line-embedded low-level circulations should still pose a threat for QLCS tornadoes as one or more clusters/lines advances eastward across MS and western AL late tonight through early Tuesday morning in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment. Read more