Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minimal changes, please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An amplified and progressive mid-level pattern is expected to persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A deep mid-level trough and 80-100kt mid-level jet will move out of the Southwest into the southern and central Plains D3/Sun. Accompanied by a deep lee low and strong cold front, critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the southern Plains through D3/Sun into D4/Mon. Behind the trough, strong northwest flow is expected through mid week potentially supporting elevated fire-weather concerns. A second significant shortwave trough is progged to approach the southern Rockies D7/Thur through the end of the period. Elevated to critical fire-weather appears likely, continuing into next weekend with strong mid-level flow lingering over the southern/central Plains. ...Southern Plains D3/Sun-D4/Mon... Ahead of the rapidly deepening upper trough, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected early D3/Sun. Medium-range guidance has come into strong agreement for a deep surface cyclone (sub 990mb) across parts of southwest/south-central KS. Very strong wind fields are expected across parts of southern CO, west TX/OK and southeastern NM ahead of the deepening low. Dry downslope trajectories and mid-level dry air ahead of the trough should allow for afternoon min RH values to fall near 15-25% with some solar heating through partly cloudy skies. While somewhat higher than normal, the lower RH should overlap with the very strong surface wind fields, especially near and along the low-level thermal ridge from northwest OK into the northern TX Panhandle. Area model soundings show sustained surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts of 50-60 mph possible. Despite some recent rainfall and higher RH, the very strong wind fields will overlap with areas of abnormally high fine-fuel loading likely supporting extreme fire behavior. Critical fire-weather conditions will occur, with some localized extremely critical conditions also possible. A wind shift to north/northwesterly is possible as the cold front begins to move south late in the forecast period, potentially exacerbating strong wind-driven fire behavior. The 40 and 70% probability of critical areas were expanded to better reflect more robust fire-weather conditions within the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions may also occur into D4/Mon ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern TX Panhandle and west-central TX. Gusty west winds of 15-25 mph and RH around 20% may support elevated to locally critical conditions. ...West TX/Rio Grande D5/Tue-D6/Wed... Behind the departing trough and in the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest flow is expected over parts of West TX and southeast NM. Medium-range guidance varies on the best overlap of minimum RH below 20% and gusty winds across the TX big Bend. However, ensemble guidance and the general pattern recognition suggests at least some risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains D7/Thu-D8/Fri... As the second upper trough moves out of the Southwest strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread parts of the southern Plains. Aided by diurnal mixing and a deepening cyclone over the central Plains, strong surface wind fields are again expected to develop coincident with low RH values. Some variation in medium-range guidance still exists regarding timing of the upper trough and the overlap of the strongest winds/RH. However, the combination of 15-25 mph surface winds and humidity of 15-20% appears likely to support elevated to critical fire-weather potential through the end of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Nauslar.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ...Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ...South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ...FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. Read more