Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 18 10:01:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western/central MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124... Valid 180825Z - 181000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 continues. SUMMARY...The severe/damaging wind threat has increased with a small bow moving eastward. An isolated hail threat also continues. Local watch extension (in area) is possible. DISCUSSION...Mainly supercell structures over northeast KS have evolved into a small bowing complex over the past hour or so. This convection is approaching the Kansas City metro in the near term, and should pose a continued severe/damaging wind threat. Gusts up to around 70 mph may occur given the well organized nature of the bow, even as low-level static stability attempts to hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as strong reflectivity aloft associated with an embedded supercell persists on the southern flank of the bow. Given a current eastward motion around 35-40 kt, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 to include more of western/central MO may be needed. Still, the eastward extent of the severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, as less MUCAPE is present farther east. However, greater DCAPE is present into central MO, which may support a continued severe wind threat through the early morning hours. ..Gleason.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39179527 39529496 39829484 39739388 39209253 38579348 38619463 38909550 39179527 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MHK TO 35 NE MHK TO 30 WSW STJ TO 35 NE STJ. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-121-139-149-161-177-197- 209-181040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-063-095-101-107-165-177-181040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MHK TO 35 NE MHK TO 30 WSW STJ TO 35 NE STJ. ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-121-139-149-161-177-197- 209-181040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MIAMI OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-063-095-101-107-165-177-181040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE PLATTE RAY Read more

WW 124 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 180440Z - 181100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas Western and Northwest Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1140 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase and intensify across northeast Kansas into western/northwest Missouri overnight, including the I-70 corridor and potentially the Kansas City Metro area. Large hail can be expected with the most intense storms, and locally strong wind gusts could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Manhattan KS to 20 miles east northeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SLN TO 25 N MHK TO 25 W FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-209-180940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For much of the extended period, a deep upper low and expansive trough will exist over eastern Canada, with moderate northwest flow across the central and eastern CONUS with various embedded waves. A cold front will be located roughly along the Gulf Coast on Sunday/D4, with areas of rain and thunderstorms from eastern TX toward the northern Gulf Coast and across northern FL. High pressure will keep the quality low-level moisture primarily offshore, but return flow into the southern Plains is forecast from around Wednesday/D7 and beyond as a potential upper trough develops over the western CONUS. As such, low severe potential is forecast for most of the D4-8 period, with perhaps increasing potential by D8 or beyond as the large northeastern trough dwindles. Read more

MD 0478 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124... Valid 180700Z - 180830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and gusty wind threat continues early this morning. DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet noted on KTWX VWP will continue to support elevated supercell potential early this morning across parts of northeast KS and western MO. The primary supercell of interest at the moment near Topeka KS is north of a surface warm front over east-central KS. This thunderstorm should remain elevated in the short term while progressing eastward towards the Kansas City metro. Given adequate MUCAPE and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear, isolated supercells across this area should continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds around 50-60 mph may also be realized, as the depth of the near-surface stable layer does not appear prohibitively deep in RAP forecast soundings. ..Gleason.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39369636 39679604 39669501 39489438 39109408 38489416 38459486 38869593 39079638 39369636 Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 124 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478 ..GLEASON..04/18/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 124 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-117-121-131-139- 149-161-177-197-201-209-180840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-037-047-049-063-087-095-165-180840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CASS CLAY CLINTON DEKALB HOLT JACKSON PLATTE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas. Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear unlikely over much of the CONUS today. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more