Severe Storms

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211854Z - 212130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple hours. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are the primary concerns. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening in the vicinity of a mesoscale low over northwest TX, where steep low-level lapse rates are impinging on middle/upper 50s surface dewpoints. Isolated convective initiation is underway in this area of focused mesoscale ascent. Farther south, cumulus is more shallow along the dryline (owing to weak low-level convergence), though deepening cumulus is developing west of the dryline in a well-mixed/destabilizing boundary layer. Aided by gradually strengthening DCVA preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing west TX, initial thunderstorms will develop/intensify along/south of the mesoscale low, where low-level convergence is maximized. Around 35 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly straight hodograph) will support initially discrete cells, with an isolated hail risk (potentially up to 1.5 inches with the stronger storms) and locally strong/severe gusts. Farther south, thunderstorms should evolve out of the steep low-level lapse rate plume, with a similar risk of isolated hail and slightly greater severe-wind risk, given the steeper low-level lapse rates and stronger deep-layer shear. With time, these storms should increase in coverage and spread eastward, as the large-scale ascent continues to overspread the region. This will promote localized upscale growth into several loosely organized clusters, though the strongest deep-layer shear may be displaced to the south of this activity -- potentially limiting convective organization and favoring outflow dominant storms. Nevertheless, strong to severe gusts (generally 50-60 mph) will become the main concern, though isolated large hail will remain possible with the more discrete activity. Current thinking is that the severe hail/wind risk may remain too isolated/marginal for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 29909915 29939967 30149991 30600021 31770040 32650038 33380016 33839983 34029939 34089897 34029836 33799780 33399747 32239759 30449798 29959857 29909915 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track with adjustments made based on trends in latest guidance. Localized elevated conditions remain possible Friday afternoon - mainly for wind prone locations in the vicinity of terrain features. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of West TX. Elsewhere, a progressive weather pattern and associated widespread precipitation -- along with a trailing cold front and milder conditions -- will temper any fire-weather threat. ...West TX... In the wake of an ejecting, mid-level trough, modest west-northwesterly flow is forecast over eastern NM and West TX. This will lead to dry, downsloping flow and deepening, well-mixed boundary layers across West TX. Critical-level relative humidities (10-15 percent) are possible across the region by mid-afternoon. Given a lack of more robust cyclone development, surface wind speeds are expected to be more tempered around 10-15 mph. Parts of the region also recently experienced some wetting precipitation, but this was relatively limited (around 0.1 inches) and localized in nature. Given forecast ERCs in the 70-80th percentiles and generally persistent dry and windy conditions, Elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible in the delineated area Friday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night. ...Southeast States... An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA. While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours. How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast. ..Leitman.. 03/21/2024 Read more