Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near 15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness. Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details regarding other fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near 15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness. Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details regarding other fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required. Consideration for an Elevated risk area was given to portions of New England where patchy elevated fire weather conditions are currently ongoing within a post-frontal offshore flow regime. RH values currently between 30-40% are expected to fall into the 25-35% range by late afternoon with wind speeds remaining near 15 mph for most locations. The fire weather threat should be greatest across NJ where local fuel reports indicate fuels are receptive; however, precipitation over the past 24-48 hours further north along the New England coast should limit fuel readiness. Consequently, the limited spatial extent of the threat precludes additional highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details regarding other fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0275 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57... FOR MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57... Valid 211408Z - 211545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail remain possible over the Middle Texas Coastal Plain for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have persisted for the past few hours over the Middle TX Coast amid continued warm-air advection and modest buoyancy. Vertical shear is strong enough for rotating updrafts, and a few stronger, more organized updrafts have been noted embedded within the larger precipitation field. The best environment is currently just offshore, as evidenced by the supercell ongoing offshore about 40 miles south of Palacios. Even so, potential still exists for a few updrafts strong enough to produce hail over the next few hours. ..Mosier.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28399755 28999723 29579677 29709593 29329543 28599557 27909631 28119740 28399755 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 57 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 211125Z - 211800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle Texas Coastal Plain Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity this morning while spreading east and northeastward near the middle Texas Coast. A couple of slightly elevated supercells will be possible, with the potential to produce 1-2 inch diameter hail and isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Victoria TX to 45 miles northwest of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211018Z - 211215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is still expected to occur across parts of the Middle Texas Coastal Plain through mid-morning. Environment remains conditionally favorable for a couple supercells, with a primary threat of large hail. DISCUSSION...Earlier expectations for sustained thunderstorm development across the Middle TX Coastal Plain have failed to materialize appreciably over land. It appears the remnant elevated mixed layer has provided sufficient capping to deter storms, west of the northwest Gulf. But with a 30-35 kt low-level jet per the CRP VWP, in conjunction with numerous light showers, at some point deep convection should become sustained. This scenario continues to be well-advertised, albeit delayed, in early morning guidance. Once this occurs, the environment should be characterized by favorable deep-layer speed shear and an elongated hodograph, supporting mid-level updraft rotation. Large hail still appears to be the primary threat with sustained convection tending to be at least slightly elevated, north of the upper 60s surface dew points plume that has reached Aransas Bay. ..Grams/Thompson.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27589692 28289809 29039791 29689656 29459557 29039509 28709509 27589692 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more