Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong 12hr midlevel height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough that will eject inland along the WA/OR Coast after 06z. Large-scale ascent/moistening, and steepening lapse rates should contribute to weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings suggest most convection will remain too shallow to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 28 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 28 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to drift south across the far southern FL Peninsula and FL Keys the next few hours. A few thunderstorms near the southeast FL coast will shift offshore, and while a thunderstorm or two remains possible the next couple of hours, thunderstorm potential is expected to end by 00z. ..Leitman.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed; latest observations and guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns on Monday. See the previous discussion for details. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more