Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track (see discussion below for details). Latest guidance continues to show the potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central NM southward into far west TX Tuesday afternoon. However, variance between solutions continues to suggest low probability for any one location to maintain elevated thresholds for more than an hour or two away from more prominent terrain features. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for highlights, but confidence remains too limited to introduce any risk areas. ..Moore.. 06/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft is forecast to transition to northwesterly through the forecast period as mid-level ridging builds over the West Coast. At the same time, a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it ejects eastward into the Plains. At the surface, several lee lows are forecast to develop from eastern MT into the southern Plains. A cold front will move south over the Rockies and central US ushering in a slightly cooler air mass. Increasing moisture and weaker winds are expected over parts of the Southwest in the wake of the front and as ridging limits westerly flow aloft. The net result will be much less overlap of dry and windy conditions into parts of NM, AZ and far west TX. While a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions (winds of 15+ mph and RH below 20%) are possible over parts of southern NM and far west TX, coverage and duration of this appears unlikely to meet Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 3 17:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A large area of strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley northward to the Upper Mississippi Valley. An area of better organized severe potential is expected across the Middle Missouri Valley where damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will become negatively tilted as it pivots east to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Vertical shear ahead of the trough will remain weak, with stronger deep-layer flow confined to the back side of the trough. At the surface, a cold front oriented north to south from the central Dakotas into northwest KS Tuesday morning will shift east through the period. By Wednesday morning the front is expected to be located from Lake Michigan south/southwest to central OK and northwest TX, though the southern extent of the boundary will be somewhat diffuse. A couple of MCVs also are forecast. The first may be located in the vicinity of the Ozarks, shifting east across the Mid-South and TN Valley. Another MCV near the Mid-MS Valley may lift north/northeast into WI. These features are dependent on convection in the Day 1/Monday period, so some uncertainty in exact location by Tuesday is uncertain. Nevertheless, these features, along with the surface cold front and northern upper trough will provide focus for strong to severe storms across a broad area Tuesday. ...Middle Missouri to Upper Mississippi Valley... A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating into the 70s and 80s F will aid in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be marginal across the region, with generally around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes expected. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be more meridional and parallel to the surface boundary across MN. This may result in anafrontal type convection along the boundary, especially across northern MN. Nevertheless, a corridor of damaging wind and hail potential will exist from the Mid-MO Valley into southeast/east-central MN where stronger heating will result in a band of greater destabilization. ...Northern IL into WI... Convection is expected to develop during the afternoon in response to the northward moving MCV. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of this feature across northern IL into WI. Vertical shear is expected to be weak, though may be locally enhanced near the MCV sufficiently to allow for at least briefly strong to severe storms. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with this activity. ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible as one or more convectively enhanced vorticity maxima float across the region. A seasonally moist and moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment is forecast. Some local enhancement to shear is possible near remnant MCVs or outflow boundaries moving over the area. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible through early evening. ...TX Panhandle into southern OK/north TX... A somewhat conditional risk is expected across the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Tuesday afternoon. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely maintain capping. However, a weak surface low is forecast over the southeast TX Panhandle/southwest OK vicinity. The surface cold front will sag into central OK and the TX Panhandle, but a very moist airmass ahead of this feature will allow moisture to wrap around the weak surface low into the TX Panhandle. Low-level convergence and cooling aloft may allow for a storm or two to develop. If this occurs, large hail and damaging gusts are possible. However, given uncertainty/conditionality only low (5 percent) wind/hail probabilities are included. Most guidance is in better agreement that another MCS may develop near the cold front overnight and move across portions of southern/eastern OK into north TX. This scenario is also uncertain, but some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity if it develops. ...Lower MS Valley... A remnant MCS from the Day 1/Monday period may be ongoing Tuesday morning near the ArkLaTex. Some guidance suggests this system will continue or may reintensify as it shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient over LA into southern MS. Vertical shear will be weak, with little upper support for ascent. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be present. If a sufficient cold pool and/or MCV exists, this could support continued thunderstorm development into the afternoon. While this remains conditional, low severe probabilities (5 percent) for wind have been introduced. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2024 Read more