Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1173 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHWESTERN OHIO...NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern lower Michigan...northwestern Ohio...northeastern and central Indiana...southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051538Z - 051815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may continue to slowly strengthen and organize while spreading east-northeastward across the region accompanied by strong to, perhaps, occasionally severe gusts. While the overall severe threat still appears generally marginal in nature, trends are being monitored and it might not be out of the question that a severe weather watch could become necessary for at least a portion of the area. DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying on the leading edge of the convectively generated cold pool which trails a compact, but well-defined mesoscale convective vortex currently migrating east-northeastward through northern Indiana. This appears to be embedded within 30+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, near the base of negatively tilted large-scale mid-level trough forecast to continue slowly pivoting toward the lower Great Lakes region, and through the Ohio Valley, into this afternoon. A seasonably moist boundary-layer, including mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points, is destabilizing to the east and south of the convective outflow, and, as updraft inflow becomes characterized by increasing CAPE, there appears potential for further intensification of this convective cluster as it approaches the western Lake Erie vicinity. The trailing outflow has become quasi-stationary southwestward and westward into central Illinois, where new thunderstorm development appears to be occurring to the north of Salem. This appears supported by an area of favorable enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent, and the downstream environment appears conducive to similar intensification and organization which has occurred with the lead cluster. With continuing thunderstorm intensification, and modest further steepening of low-level rates in advance of the convection with continuing insolation, the potential for strong to widely scattered severe surface gusts seems likely to increase through 17-19Z. While most peak gusts might remain near or below 50 kts, some might become locally damaging. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41018643 42368324 42048245 41208255 40348349 39988444 39338604 38438780 37858893 37968989 38788920 39498877 40418672 41018643 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OK...PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone centered over Ontario is forecast to move southeastward on Thursday, with a belt of northwesterly mid/upper-level flow extending west and south of the cyclone from the Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move across parts of New England into the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. The trailing cold front will extend westward into parts of the southern Plains. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening along/ahead of the cold front from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. For northern portions of the region across parts of central/eastern NY and vicinity, MLCAPE may remain relatively modest (generally 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate deep-layer flow/shear and ascent attendant to the approaching upper-level trough will support some storm organization. Multicell clusters and a couple of transient supercells will be possible. Locally damaging winds appear to be the most likely hazard at this time, though at least small hail will also be possible. Some threat could spread into parts of southern New England before storm intensity diminishes during the evening. Farther south, deep-layer shear will be weaker into parts of the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. However, relatively stronger heating/destabilization and somewhat enhanced low-level southwesterly flow could support a few stronger clusters with isolated damaging-wind potential from afternoon into the early evening. ...Parts of central/south FL... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon, with the typical sea-breeze-related convection potentially aided by a weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the Southeast. Deep-layer shear will generally be rather weak, but relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a few strong to locally severe storms capable of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of southwest OK into the TX Panhandle vicinity... The western portion of the cold front will likely become nearly stationary from southern parts of the TX Panhandle into southwest OK Thursday afternoon. Strong heating will support moderate destabilization near the front, with at least isolated storm development possible by late afternoon into early evening. While deep-layer flow will generally be rather weak, northerly midlevel flow may provide sufficient effective shear for modest storm organization, including the potential for hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/05/2024 Read more