Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the southern High Plains. Gusty winds and some hail are the main threats. ...Southern Plains... Strong surface heating contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the southern High Plains late this afternoon. Scattered strong/severe convection has developed along a boundary that is currently draped across northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures still holding in the upper 90s south of this activity, gusty winds remain the primary risk as storms propagate south this evening. Nocturnal cooling later this evening should lead to gradual weakening. ...Elsewhere... Significant convective overturning across the eastern FL Peninsula has led to weaker buoyancy and less robust convection over the past few hours. While locally strong winds may continue with this activity early this evening, most convection should remain below severe levels. Farther North across NC, scattered convection persists this evening but much of this activity is sub-severe with just gusty winds noted with the most robust activity. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the southern High Plains. Gusty winds and some hail are the main threats. ...Southern Plains... Strong surface heating contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the southern High Plains late this afternoon. Scattered strong/severe convection has developed along a boundary that is currently draped across northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures still holding in the upper 90s south of this activity, gusty winds remain the primary risk as storms propagate south this evening. Nocturnal cooling later this evening should lead to gradual weakening. ...Elsewhere... Significant convective overturning across the eastern FL Peninsula has led to weaker buoyancy and less robust convection over the past few hours. While locally strong winds may continue with this activity early this evening, most convection should remain below severe levels. Farther North across NC, scattered convection persists this evening but much of this activity is sub-severe with just gusty winds noted with the most robust activity. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the southern High Plains. Gusty winds and some hail are the main threats. ...Southern Plains... Strong surface heating contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the southern High Plains late this afternoon. Scattered strong/severe convection has developed along a boundary that is currently draped across northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures still holding in the upper 90s south of this activity, gusty winds remain the primary risk as storms propagate south this evening. Nocturnal cooling later this evening should lead to gradual weakening. ...Elsewhere... Significant convective overturning across the eastern FL Peninsula has led to weaker buoyancy and less robust convection over the past few hours. While locally strong winds may continue with this activity early this evening, most convection should remain below severe levels. Farther North across NC, scattered convection persists this evening but much of this activity is sub-severe with just gusty winds noted with the most robust activity. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the southern High Plains. Gusty winds and some hail are the main threats. ...Southern Plains... Strong surface heating contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the southern High Plains late this afternoon. Scattered strong/severe convection has developed along a boundary that is currently draped across northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures still holding in the upper 90s south of this activity, gusty winds remain the primary risk as storms propagate south this evening. Nocturnal cooling later this evening should lead to gradual weakening. ...Elsewhere... Significant convective overturning across the eastern FL Peninsula has led to weaker buoyancy and less robust convection over the past few hours. While locally strong winds may continue with this activity early this evening, most convection should remain below severe levels. Farther North across NC, scattered convection persists this evening but much of this activity is sub-severe with just gusty winds noted with the most robust activity. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the southern High Plains. Gusty winds and some hail are the main threats. ...Southern Plains... Strong surface heating contributed to very steep low-level lapse rates across the southern High Plains late this afternoon. Scattered strong/severe convection has developed along a boundary that is currently draped across northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures still holding in the upper 90s south of this activity, gusty winds remain the primary risk as storms propagate south this evening. Nocturnal cooling later this evening should lead to gradual weakening. ...Elsewhere... Significant convective overturning across the eastern FL Peninsula has led to weaker buoyancy and less robust convection over the past few hours. While locally strong winds may continue with this activity early this evening, most convection should remain below severe levels. Farther North across NC, scattered convection persists this evening but much of this activity is sub-severe with just gusty winds noted with the most robust activity. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 06/07/2024 Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW RZZ TO 20 ESE RIC TO 15 WSW NHK TO 45 WSW DCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 ..DEAN..06/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-070040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-070040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-070040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

MD 1187 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Southern Mid Atlantic vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394... Valid 062325Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may persist through mid evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster is moving eastward near the VA/NC border this evening. The downstream environment remains warm, moist, and moderately unstable, and isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out before this cluster eventually moves offshore. Farther north, some modest intensification has been noted with storm clusters across eastern MD. The KDOX VWP depicts modestly enhanced westerly 1-3 km flow, which will support some damaging-wind potential with the ongoing storm clusters. An additional strong storm or two could develop this evening near a weak surface trough across northern MD. Later tonight, the severe threat should tend to diminish as ongoing storms move offshore and MLCINH generally begins to increase with time. ..Dean.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 36697575 36207638 36237738 36337783 36597763 37597674 38547698 38877730 39057748 39157733 39367634 39037544 38077528 36697575 Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW RZZ TO 20 ESE RIC TO 15 WSW NHK TO 45 WSW DCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 ..DEAN..06/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-070040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-070040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-070040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 394 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 061820Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern half of New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern and Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the afternoon into several broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely push east of the Atlantic Seaboard by mid to late evening with the severe risk diminishing from west to east across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Trenton NJ to 35 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW RZZ TO 20 ESE RIC TO 15 WSW NHK TO 45 WSW DCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 ..DEAN..06/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-070040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-070040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-070040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

MD 1187 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Southern Mid Atlantic vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394... Valid 062325Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may persist through mid evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster is moving eastward near the VA/NC border this evening. The downstream environment remains warm, moist, and moderately unstable, and isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out before this cluster eventually moves offshore. Farther north, some modest intensification has been noted with storm clusters across eastern MD. The KDOX VWP depicts modestly enhanced westerly 1-3 km flow, which will support some damaging-wind potential with the ongoing storm clusters. An additional strong storm or two could develop this evening near a weak surface trough across northern MD. Later tonight, the severe threat should tend to diminish as ongoing storms move offshore and MLCINH generally begins to increase with time. ..Dean.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 36697575 36207638 36237738 36337783 36597763 37597674 38547698 38877730 39057748 39157733 39367634 39037544 38077528 36697575 Read more

MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST VT
Mesoscale Discussion 1186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY into western CT/MA and southwest VT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062201Z - 062330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado could spread eastward into this evening. DISCUSSION...A band of convection is currently moving across eastern NY, with a rather prominent mesolow noted northwest of Albany. The immediate downstream environment remains rather moist and modestly unstable (MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range), with sufficient deep-layer shear to support some storm organization. Generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates have generally limited the severe threat thus far. However, surface winds remain backed along/east of a surface trough/weak front, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is noted both from objective mesoanalyses and the VWP from KENX. Given the relatively moist boundary layer and somewhat favorable low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent circulation embedded within the larger storm cluster. Otherwise, isolated damaging winds remain possible, both with any stronger bowing segment that can be maintained, and also in the vicinity of the mesolow where rather strong velocities are noted from KENX. ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41037391 41567382 42507396 42827450 42927463 43857450 44027328 43557314 42267292 41387301 41177336 41127383 41037391 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more