Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to mid week is quite low. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day, within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more