Severe Storms

WW 0397 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0397 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 396 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/07/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-017-061-099-072340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS KSC007-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-129-135-137-145-151-153-165-171-175-179- 185-187-189-193-195-199-203-072340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON PAWNEE PRATT RAWLINS RUSH SCOTT SEWARD Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MHN TO 35 ESE MHN TO 40 NNE ANW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 ..THORNTON..06/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-041-047-063-071-077-079-081-085-089- 093-103-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-139-141-143-149-163-175- 183-185-072340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOLT HOWARD KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON MADISON MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK ROCK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1191 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395... Valid 072043Z - 072245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete ongoing supercell development is likely to persist through 5-7 PM CDT, with the risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes, then strong to severe wind gusts with at least one storm approaching the Broken Bow vicinity. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms continue to develop, including one increasingly prominent supercell now turning southeastward, to the southeast and south of Thedford. This cell appears most likely to maintain inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, and substantive further intensification appears likely as it propagates southeastward toward the Broken Bow vicinity through 22-00Z. This may be aided by strengthening deep-layer shear associated with a vigorous upstream mid-level jet streak digging east-southeast of the Nebraska Panhandle. The potential for large, damaging hail seems likely to continue to increase. Tornado potential is more unclear, given sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. But a couple of brief tornadoes may be possible, before strong to severe surface gusts become a more prominent threat with strengthening outflow by early evening. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41950073 42229980 41219871 40829937 40809992 41430063 41950073 Read more

MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...southwest KS...and the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072040Z - 072245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe winds and hail may prompt watch issuance this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased in coverage and intensity across the southern/central High Plains along/near a surface trough. A rather hot and well-mixed airmass is present along/ahead of this activity, as robust daytime heating has allowed surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and lower 100s. Severe/damaging winds will probably be the main threat with this activity as it spreads east-southeastward through the rest of the afternoon, and continuing into the early evening. Some of these wind gusts could be significant (75+ mph) given very large temperature-dewpoint spreads from recent surface observations and near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through low/mid levels. Stronger deep-layer shear over southeast CO into southwest KS may support some threat for a supercell or two, with associated risk for large hail in addition to the severe/damaging wind threat. Given current observational trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to address this increasing severe risk. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36650475 37430301 38070174 38070034 37330017 36410061 35760301 35930429 36210476 36650475 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more