Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ..Weinman.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across much of this moist airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence. These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger instability. ...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail, with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across much of this moist airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence. These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger instability. ...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail, with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across much of this moist airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence. These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger instability. ...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail, with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across much of this moist airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence. These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger instability. ...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail, with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, capable of hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening from the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central U.S. on Saturday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from the plains of eastern Colorado eastward across much of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across much of this moist airmass by mid to late afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be limited, thunderstorm development will be possible in areas that heat up the most, and in areas with maximized low-level convergence. These locations will favor residual outflow boundaries. Additional convection is expected to develop in the evening as low-level flow increases. At this time, HRRR forecast soundings across much of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Saturday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. These forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear and steep enough lapse rates for an isolated severe threat. The most likely area for hail would be in eastern Colorado, where mid-level lapse rates could exceed 8 C/km. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from the eastern plains of Colorado eastward into the Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep during the late afternoon and early evening. Any threat could persist into the mid evening, with cell clusters that have access to locally stronger instability. ...Ozarks and Mid Mississippi Valley... Flow will be from the west-northwest at mid-levels on Saturday from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon across the southern half of Missouri into much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be possible Saturday afternoon along a gradient of instability in southern or central Missouri, although there is uncertainty concerning the location of the associated boundary. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or near this boundary and move southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi during the late afternoon and early evening. HRRR forecast soundings across southern Missouri around 00Z/Sunday have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would be favorable for supercells with hail, with the potential conditional upon storm mode. Some model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west corridor of enhanced low-level convergence will develop during the early evening, with storms becoming linear quickly. This would favor an isolated wind-damage threat. Any severe threat is expected to diminish in the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be topping the western US ridge over the northern Rockies. This feature is forecast to dig southeast into the High Plains of eastern WY by 18z, then subsequently progress toward the mid Missouri Valley by 08/06z. LLJ is forecast to respond to this feature and increase across the High Plains from western KS into southwest SD by daybreak, then shift east ahead of the progressive short wave. By evening, NAM depicts a 60+kt southwesterly LLJ into northeast KS. In addition, lee surface low will be dislodged off the higher terrain into northwest NE by the start of the period and this low will then track southeast into northwest KS during the mid afternoon before shifting east after sunset. Low-level moisture should increase markedly across the central Plains early due to the aforementioned strengthening LLJ. Latest thinking is scattered thunderstorms will develop within the warm advection corridor over SD/northern NE then grow upscale into a possible MCS. Initial convection will likely be supercellular in nature but clustering and approaching short wave favors a larger complex of storms that would propagate southeast across the central Plains. Very large hail could be noted with supercells but a transition to damaging winds is expected as the MCS matures by early evening. There is some concern this activity may require higher severe probabilities, especially if the moisture returns and this complex of storms evolves as anticipated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/07/2024 Read more