Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0201 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0201 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CGI TO 30 SW EVV TO 10 WNW SDF TO 35 N LEX TO 40 SE LUK. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-080740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-027-029-031-033-035-039-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-085-087-091- 093-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151- 155-157-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-181-183-185-205-207-209-211- 213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-080740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CGI TO 30 SW EVV TO 10 WNW SDF TO 35 N LEX TO 40 SE LUK. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-080740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-027-029-031-033-035-039-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-085-087-091- 093-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151- 155-157-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-181-183-185-205-207-209-211- 213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-080740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CGI TO 30 SW EVV TO 10 WNW SDF TO 35 N LEX TO 40 SE LUK. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-080740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-027-029-031-033-035-039-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-085-087-091- 093-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151- 155-157-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-181-183-185-205-207-209-211- 213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-080740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CGI TO 30 SW EVV TO 10 WNW SDF TO 35 N LEX TO 40 SE LUK. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-080740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-027-029-031-033-035-039-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-085-087-091- 093-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151- 155-157-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-181-183-185-205-207-209-211- 213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-080740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CGI TO 30 SW EVV TO 10 WNW SDF TO 35 N LEX TO 40 SE LUK. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-080740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI KYC001-003-005-007-009-011-017-021-027-029-031-033-035-039-045- 047-049-053-055-057-059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-085-087-091- 093-097-099-103-105-107-111-113-123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151- 155-157-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-181-183-185-205-207-209-211- 213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-080740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS Read more

WW 198 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 080000Z - 080700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Central and Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 700 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the watch area. These storms will organize into supercells, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east of Lexington KY to 5 miles northwest of Cape Girardeau MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW 197... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from northern Mexico should support convective initiation across central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including scattered supercells posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably unstable airmass along/south of the front. ...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon, and spread east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from northern Mexico should support convective initiation across central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including scattered supercells posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably unstable airmass along/south of the front. ...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon, and spread east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from northern Mexico should support convective initiation across central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including scattered supercells posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably unstable airmass along/south of the front. ...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon, and spread east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from northern Mexico should support convective initiation across central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including scattered supercells posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably unstable airmass along/south of the front. ...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon, and spread east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from northern Mexico should support convective initiation across central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including scattered supercells posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably unstable airmass along/south of the front. ...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon, and spread east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through Thursday evening. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more