Severe Storms

WW 390 SEVERE TSTM KS 041925Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will probably continue to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts across parts of central Kansas through the afternoon. As this activity moves east, a severe threat will possibly move into northeast portions of Kansas. Additional isolated thunderstorms over south-central Kansas may develop later this afternoon into the evening and yield a threat for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Manhattan KS to 10 miles southwest of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1168 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042316Z - 050115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with a potential for hail and strong wind gusts, may continue for a few more hours across the eastern Texas Panhandle. At this time, convective coverage is expected to decrease in the mid to late evening. If it appears that the convection will last longer than expected, then watch issuance would need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo shows a widely-spaced line of strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. The convection is being supported by lift just ahead of a vorticity max moving southeastward across the Oklahoma Panhandle. The latest surface analysis has a 996 mb low over northwest Texas with northerly flow located across much of the Texas Panhandle. A corridor of locally higher surface dewpoints extends westward into the northern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings across the northeastern Texas Panhandle have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, which could be enough for a hail threat with the stronger cells. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible. Cells are expected to persist for a few more hours, but that the cap is expected to re-build into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid evening, causing convective coverage to decrease. ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35390184 35740183 36050146 36330083 36300038 36130002 35749994 34939996 34440005 34370052 34510090 35070129 35390184 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and southern Oklahoma this evening. Large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Kansas into far southeast Missouri... A cluster of thunderstorms across southern Kansas will continue south through the evening toward increasing buoyancy through the evening. These storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as they drift south. There is some uncertainty how far south the eventual MCS may continue to pose a severe threat, which will be related to the expansiveness of the central/southeast Oklahoma convection. ...Southwest/Central/Southern Oklahoma... Multiple storm attempts have occurred across southwest Oklahoma over the past few hours and have seemingly struggled to overcome the warm temperatures on the 00Z OUN RAOB. However, temperatures aloft are cooling rapidly as the mid-level trough across western Oklahoma drift east. Therefore, expect storms to eventually develop and become supercellular amid 34 knots of effective shear (per 00Z OUN RAOB. Initially, storms will have a threat for large to very large hail amid strong buoyancy and initial more discrete mode before growing upscale later this evening with an increasing severe wind threat into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. ...Midwest to the Upper Midwest... Storms have mostly weakened from Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, a few stronger storms are possible with a threat for hail or isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Central Gulf Coast... Storms across southeast Mississippi may pose a damaging wind threat for another 1 to 2 hours before weakening after sunset. ..Bentley.. 06/05/2024 Read more

MD 1167 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390... Valid 042314Z - 050045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390 continues. SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing thunderstorms appears likely this evening. Damaging winds and isolated hail are possible. A new downstream watch or an extension of WW390 will likely be needed in a couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As of 23UTC, a cluster of severe thunderstorms was ongoing over central KS with additional development occurring along the cold front to the west. The environment ahead of these storms remains favorable for damaging winds and hail with a broad warm sector, large buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Thus far, storms have remained ahead of the front, but with the front starting to surge southeast, additional development and upscale growth appears likely over the next couple of hours. Large precipitable water values above 1.5 inches will support strong water and hail loaded downdrafts as storms merge. Several measured severe gusts have already occurred suggesting the environment is likely to remain favorable for damaging gusts this evening, especially as stronger cold pools develop. Hi-res guidance shows upscale growth into one or more clusters and eventually a line is likely as storms move east/southeast toward the OK border. As the severe threat is likely to persist into this evening, a new downstream watch or extension of WW390 may need to be considered in the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37089892 38369839 39079810 39409789 39589759 39589700 39349643 39109609 38639534 38239500 37819483 37469487 37179497 37009502 36939550 36999800 37089892 Read more

MD 1169 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...392... FOR OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Oklahoma and Southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...392... Valid 042346Z - 050045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390, 392 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across parts of southern Kansas and Oklahoma over the next one to two hours. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible, and a tornado or two will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows several cumulus towers forming immediately to the west of Oklahoma City and further southwest toward Lawton. The cumulus towers are located within a very moist and unstable airmass. The latest RAP analysis has a corridor of extreme instability from north Texas into southern and west-central Oklahoma, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. This airmass, along with increasing large-scale ascent, associated with a vorticity max moving southeastward into Oklahoma, will likely result in rapid cell initiation across parts of southwest and west-central Oklahoma over the next hour. RAP forecast soundings around 00Z from near and to the west of Oklahoma City southwestward along the I-44 corridor, have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This will likely support supercell development, with a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two. Convective coverage is expected to rapidly increase over the next couple of hours. Further to the north across southern Kansas, a strongly unstable airmass is also in place, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As the cluster of storms in south-central Kansas moves southward toward the Oklahoma state line over the next couple of hours, the severe threat is expected to increase. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible with these storms. ..Broyles.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 34069737 34299820 34649864 35299908 36219916 36809902 37599871 37849830 37879778 37739726 37259700 36649700 35569670 34779629 34299642 34119667 34069737 Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MKT TO 55 N ELO. ..LYONS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-115-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON PINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MKT TO 55 N ELO. ..LYONS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-115-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON PINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MKT TO 55 N ELO. ..LYONS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-115-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON PINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MKT TO 55 N ELO. ..LYONS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-115-050140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON PINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more