Severe Storms

MD 0687 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 196...197...198...199... FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 196...197...198...199... Valid 080220Z - 080315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 196, 197, 198, 199 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will sag southeast across the OH Valley this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms, including isolated supercells and short-line segments, arc from central OH-southern IN-extreme southeast IL. This activity is propagating slowly southeast along the northern fringe of greater buoyancy. As the LLJ increases across the upper OH Valley later this evening, a more eastward shift is expected toward the PA border, though air mass is notably less unstable immediately downstream within this warm-advection corridor. Several long-lived supercells persist, and given the shear, will likely continue, especially from southern IN into southern OH. ..Darrow.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39178776 39608452 40338359 41118291 40808179 39158277 38598486 38408815 39178776 Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-080240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP OHC005-009-013-019-029-031-053-059-067-075-077-079-081-083-087- 105-111-115-119-121-127-139-151-157-163-167-169-080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES HURON JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY RICHLAND STARK TUSCARAWAS VINTON WASHINGTON WAYNE WVC009-011-013-017-021-029-035-051-053-069-073-079-085-087-095- Read more

MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080134Z - 080230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail may occur with storms in southeast Wisconsin. Low potential for a brief tornado exists. DISCUSSION...Very modest recovery occurred behind earlier convection. A semi-organized line of convection will continue east along the cold front. The warm sector is quite narrow between the cold front and warm front/lake breeze boundary. Strong wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail is possible with this activity before weakening. Right along the boundary interface, some weak easterly winds exist. Some weak surface vorticity exists and could lead to a very brief spin-up within the line. Between diurnal cooling and the cooler temperatures farther east, the threat should last another hour or so. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX... LAT...LON 42978872 43268881 43418899 43568926 43718940 43768919 43728887 43578845 43318799 43068795 42778796 42608806 42578836 42538870 42978872 Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-089-080240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER GREENUP OHC005-009-013-019-029-031-053-059-067-075-077-079-081-083-087- 105-111-115-119-121-127-139-151-157-163-167-169-080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES HURON JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY RICHLAND STARK TUSCARAWAS VINTON WASHINGTON WAYNE WVC009-011-013-017-021-029-035-051-053-069-073-079-085-087-095- Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-081-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191- 193-199-080240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-080240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-081-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191- 193-199-080240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-080240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FWA TO 35 SW TOL TO 30 WNW TOL TO 15 ESE JXN TO 15 N DTW. ..SPC..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC091-115-161-080240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LENAWEE MONROE WASHTENAW OHC003-033-051-063-069-095-101-117-123-137-143-147-173-175- 080240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CRAWFORD FULTON HANCOCK HENRY LUCAS MARION MORROW OTTAWA PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-444-080240- CW Read more

WW 196 TORNADO IN MI OH LE 072055Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely move into the Watch area through the late afternoon and evening. The more intense storms, including the possibility for several supercells, will pose a risk for large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Lansing MI to 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0685 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 195...197... FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 195...197... Valid 072356Z - 080130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195, 197 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will spread across southern/eastern IN into western OH over the next several hours. Tornado threat continues, along with a risk for large hail. DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have grown upscale, gradually maturing as they spread across eastern/southern IN toward western OH. Air mass remains modestly unstable, and strongly sheared. 21z ILN sounding exhibited SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg, with 300 m2/s2 0-3 SRH. This activity is expected to spread east-northeast this evening within an environment that is favorable for sustaining long-lived rotating updrafts, including the possibility for tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39238717 39858549 40788452 40558336 39298415 38848655 39238717 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the evening. A few tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds are all possible. ...Ohio Valley vicinity into parts of the Mid South... Scattered supercells are ongoing early this evening from southeast lower MI into south-central/southeast IN. While the primary shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet will continue moving northeast into Ontario with time, a moderate southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain convection as it moves into a larger part of OH/KY, with additional development possible later tonight into parts of the Mid South. A favorable supercell environment is expected to persist across parts of southern and eastern IN into KY and OH. While midlevel lapse rates are weak, relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate to locally strong MLCAPE (generally 1500-3000 J/kg), with only a gradual increase in MLCINH expected through the evening. Favorable low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH generally increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support a tornado threat, including some potential for strong tornadoes. Some severe threat will spread eastward late tonight toward WV and western PA, though a gradual weakening trend is expected as storms encounter decreasing instability. Also, while large-scale ascent will generally be weaker with southwestward extent, an isolated severe storm or two remains possible later tonight into parts of AR and perhaps into the ArkLaTex region. ...Southeast KS into southwest MO... Low-level moisture is expected to surge northward across OK into southeast KS into southwest MO late tonight. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for convection to develop near/north of the warm front prior to 12Z. Should this occur, strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer would support a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 05/08/2024 Read more